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Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Maximum Wind Speed Using the Wind Multiplier Downscaling Method in the Yangtze River Inland Waterway from 1980 to 2017
Atmosphere ( IF 2.5 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-17 , DOI: 10.3390/atmos12091216
Lijun Liu , Fan Zhang

Wind speed affects the navigational safety of the Yangtze River, and assessing its spatiotemporal dynamics provides support for navigation management and disaster prevention. We developed a wind multiplier downscaling method integrating the effects of land use and topography, and used meteorological station observations and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Reanalysis Interim (ERA-Interim) reanalysis data for statistical downscaling in the Yangtze River inland waterway region from 1980 to 2017. Compared with reanalysis data, the downscaling products showed improved accuracy (especially at 5–10 m/s), and are consistent with site-based interannual variability observations. Increasing maximum wind speeds in the middle–downstream area was observed from 1980 to 1990, while a decreasing trend was observed from 2010 to 2017; the opposite was observed for the upstream. Land use has significant influence on wind speed, with a decreasing trend observed year by year for wind speed above grade 9. Although the proportion of grade 4–8 wind speed over water is small and the trend is not obvious, grade 9–10 wind speeds displayed an increasing trend from 2010 to 2017, indicating that changes in surface roughness have a significant influence on wind speed in the Yangtze River inland waterway.

中文翻译:

1980-2017年长江内河航道最大风速时空动态分析

风速影响长江航行安全,评估长江时空动态可为航行管理和防灾提供支持。我们开发了一种结合土地利用和地形影响的风乘数降尺度方法,并使用气象站观测和欧洲中期天气预报中心 (ECMWF) 再分析中期 (ERA-Interim) 再分析数据对长江内陆进行统计降尺度1980 年至 2017 年的航道区域。与再分析数据相比,降尺度产品显示出更高的准确性(尤其是在 5-10 m/s 时),并且与基于站点的年际变率观测结果一致。1980—1990年中下游地区最大风速呈上升趋势,2010—2017年呈下降趋势;在上游观察到相反的情况。土地利用对风速影响显着,9级以上风速呈逐年下降趋势。虽然4-8级风速对水面的比例较小且趋势不明显,但9-10级风速2010-2017 年,风速呈上升趋势,表明地表粗糙度变化对长江内河航道风速有显着影响。
更新日期:2021-09-17
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