Abstract

This essay will investigate the question of how the renewable energy (RE) transition may reshape world politics. To date, most IPE scholars of the RE transition assume that renewables will simply substitute for fossil fuels and thereby continue similar patterns of economic growth and military competition that have characterized world politics over the past two centuries. However, they do not systematically consider what I call the ‘non-substitutability hypothesis,’ or the view that renewables will be unable to substitute for many of the services that fossil fuels provide for economies and militaries. In contrast, I will argue that if the non-substitutability hypothesis is correct, then a fully decarbonized global political economy would require a ‘Great Transformation,’ or a structural transformation in the political-economic and military bases of world order. In particular, I suggest that this would require two conjoined transitions: 1) a transition towards a ‘post-growth’ global political economy, or an economy that does not depend on continuous annual increases in GDP; and 2) a shift towards ‘demilitarization,’ in the sense of ‘leaner’ low-energy force structures; weakening pressure for military arms racing; and a transformation in national security priorities to focus on climate mitigation, adaptation, and disaster response.

摘要

本文将探讨可再生能源 (RE) 转型如何重塑世界政治的问题。迄今为止，大多数 IPE 研究可再生能源转型的学者认为，可再生能源将简单地替代化石燃料，从而继续类似的经济增长和军事竞争模式，这些模式在过去两个世纪中成为世界政治的特征。然而，他们没有系统地考虑我所说的“不可替代性假设”，或者认为可再生能源将无法替代化石燃料为经济和军事提供的许多服务的观点。相比之下，我认为如果不可替代性假设是正确的，那么完全脱碳的全球政治经济将需要“伟大的转型，'或世界秩序的政治经济和军事基础的结构转型。特别是，我建议这将需要两个联合转型：1）向“后增长”全球政治经济转型，或不依赖于 GDP 持续每年增长的经济；2) 向“非军事化”转变，即“更精简”的低能部队结构；削弱军事军备竞赛的压力；国家安全优先事项的转变，以关注气候减缓、适应和灾害响应。'在'更精简'的低能量力结构的意义上; 削弱军事军备竞赛的压力；国家安全优先事项的转变，以关注气候减缓、适应和灾害响应。'在'更精简'的低能量力结构的意义上; 削弱军事军备竞赛的压力；国家安全优先事项的转变，以关注气候减缓、适应和灾害响应。