We study trends and drivers of long-run stock market growth in 17 advanced economies. Between 1870 and the 1980s, stock market capitalization grew in line with GDP. But over subsequent decades, an unprecedented expansion saw market cap to GDP ratios triple and remain persistently high. While most historical stock market growth was driven by issuances, this recent expansion was fueled by rising equity prices. We show that the key driver of this structural break was a profit shift towards listed firms, with listed firm profit shares in both GDP and capital income doubling to reach their highest levels in 146 years.

中文翻译：

---

大爆炸：长期的股票市值

我们研究了 17 个发达经济体长期股市增长的趋势和驱动因素。1870 年至 1980 年代期间，股票市值与 GDP 同步增长。但在随后的几十年里，史无前例的扩张使市值与 GDP 的比率增加了两倍，并保持在高位。虽然历史上大多数股票市场的增长都是由发行推动的，但最近的扩张是由股价上涨推动的。我们表明，这种结构性突破的关键驱动因素是利润向上市公司的转移，上市公司在 GDP 和资本收入中的利润份额翻了一番，达到 146 年来的最高水平。