Policy makers require support in conceptualizing and assessing the impact that vaccination policies can have on the proportion of the population being vaccinated against COVID-19. To this purpose, we propose a behavioural economics-based framework to model vaccination choices. We calibrate our model using up-to-date surveys on people attitudes toward vaccination as well as estimates of COVID-19 infection and mortality rates and vaccine efficacy for the UK population. Our findings show that vaccine campaigns hardly reach herd immunity if the sceptics have real-time information on the proportion of the population being vaccinated and the negationists do not change their attitudes toward vaccination. Based on our results, we discuss the main implications of the model's application in the context of nudging and voluntariness versus mandatory rule-based policies.

政策制定者需要支持来概念化和评估疫苗接种政策可能对接种 COVID-19 疫苗的人口比例产生的影响。为此，我们提出了一个基于行为经济学的框架来模拟疫苗接种选择。我们使用关于人们对疫苗接种态度的最新调查以及对英国人口的 COVID-19 感染率和死亡率以及疫苗效力的估计来校准我们的模型。我们的研究结果表明，如果怀疑论者掌握有关接种疫苗人口比例的实时信息，而否定论者不改变他们对疫苗接种的态度，那么疫苗运动就很难达到群体免疫。根据我们的结果，我们讨论了该模型的主要含义