ABSTRACT

This article provides an original analysis of the crisis in transatlantic relations during the Trump presidency by drawing on two theories of trust: Hoffman's work on trusting interstate relationships, focused on decision-makers' policies, and Keating and Ruzicka's work on hedging strategies. Hoffman conceptualizes interstate trust as when the trustees are expected to “do what is right” because of shared norms and values; we compare this fiduciary or moralistic approach with the predictive approach, which considers trust a strategic and rational choice made by state leaders with material interests and gains in mind. Applying this theoretical framework, we examine the impact of Trump's “America First” foreign policy on transatlantic relations, showing that there has been a pronounced shift from the fiduciary to the predictive form of trust, a development that challenges the very essence of transatlantic relations. Moreover, we also discuss the hedging initiatives adopted by the European allies in order to cope with this crisis of trust. The article concludes that in spite of periodic crises in the past, Trump's approach to allies and to transatlantic relations created a crisis of trust unlike any seen before, one which will not be overcome merely by a change of US president.

摘要

本文通过借鉴两种信任理论，对特朗普担任总统期间跨大西洋关系的危机进行了原创分析：霍夫曼关于信任州际关系的工作，侧重于决策者的政策，以及基廷和鲁齐卡关于对冲策略的工作。霍夫曼将州际信任概念化为当受托人由于共同的规范和价值观而被期望“做正确的事”时；我们将这种信托或道德主义方法与预测方法进行了比较，后者认为信任是国家领导人在考虑物质利益和收益的情况下做出的战略性和理性选择。应用这一理论框架，我们考察了特朗普的“美国优先”外交政策对跨大西洋关系的影响，表明已经从受托人显着转变为信任的预测形式，这一发展挑战了跨大西洋关系的本质。此外，我们还讨论了欧洲盟国为应对这场信任危机而采取的对冲举措。文章的结论是，尽管过去发生过周期性危机，但特朗普对待盟友和跨大西洋关系的态度造成了前所未有的信任危机，仅靠美国总统换届是无法克服的。