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Forecasting the COVID-19 Effects on Energy Poverty Across EU Member States
Energy Policy ( IF 9.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-17 , DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112597
Alfonso Carfora 1 , Giuseppe Scandurra 2 , Antonio Thomas 3
Affiliation  

The COVID-19 pandemic is manifesting its devastating effects in multiple directions, even indirectly affecting the health of citizens, for instance, by increasing the level of energy poverty (EP). As part of the studies that are trying to frame the consequences of the pandemic, this paper aims to identify the effects on EP in the coming years in a bid to identify the countries of the European Union most affected and the time span necessary to return to a path to reduce EP. For this purpose, an analysis based on the supervised learning algorithms of dynamic factor models is carried out. The outcomes of this investigation show that the negative effects of the pandemic on the level of EP will be reabsorbed very slowly, not before 2025, and in any case with substantial differences between countries, further widening the gap between countries with low levels of EP and those with greater EP levels.



中文翻译:


预测 COVID-19 对欧盟成员国能源贫困的影响



COVID-19 大流行正在多个方向显现其破坏性影响,甚至间接影响公民的健康,例如,通过增加能源贫困 (EP) 水平。作为试图界定这一流行病后果的研究的一部分,本文旨在确定未来几年对 EP 的影响,以确定受影响最严重的欧盟国家以及返回欧洲所需的时间跨度。减少EP的途径。为此,进行了基于动态因子模型的监督学习算法的分析。本次调查结果表明,疫情对EP水平的负面影响将非常缓慢地重新吸收,不会在2025年之前,而且无论如何,各国之间存在显着差异,进一步拉大EP水平低的国家与EP水平国家之间的差距。 EP水平较高的人。

更新日期:2021-09-17
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