In this study, we formulate and analyze a deterministic model for the transmission of COVID-19 and evaluate control strategies for the epidemic. It has been well documented that the severity of the disease and disease related mortality is strongly correlated with age and the presence of co-morbidities. We incorporate this in our model by considering two susceptible classes, a high risk, and a low risk group. Disease transmission within each group is modelled by an extension of the SEIR model, considering additional compartments for quarantined and treated population groups first and vaccinated and treated population groups next. Cross Infection across the high and low risk groups is also incorporated in the model. We calculate the basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and show that for [Formula: see text] the disease dies out, and for [Formula: see text] the disease is endemic. We note that varying the relative proportion of high and low risk susceptibles has a strong effect on the disease burden and mortality. We devise optimal medication and vaccination strategies for effective control of the disease. Our analysis shows that vaccinating and medicating both groups is needed for effective disease control and the controls are not very sensitive to the proportion of the high and low risk populations.

中文翻译：

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高风险和低风险易感者对 COVID-19 传播动态的影响和控制策略。


在本研究中，我们制定并分析了 COVID-19 传播的确定性模型，并评估了该流行病的控制策略。有充分证据表明，疾病的严重程度和疾病相关的死亡率与年龄和合并症的存在密切相关。我们通过考虑两个易感类别（高风险组和低风险组）将其纳入我们的模型中。每个群体内的疾病传播通过 SEIR 模型的扩展进行建模，首先考虑隔离和治疗人群的额外隔间，然后考虑疫苗接种和治疗人群的额外隔间。该模型还纳入了高风险组和低风险组的交叉感染。我们计算基本再生数[公式：见正文]并表明，对于[公式：见正文]，该疾病已灭绝，对于[公式：见正文]，该疾病是地方性的。我们注意到，改变高风险和低风险易感者的相对比例对疾病负担和死亡率有很大影响。我们设计最佳的药物和疫苗接种策略以有效控制疾病。我们的分析表明，为有效控制疾病，需要对两组人群进行疫苗接种和药物治疗，并且控制措施对高风险人群和低风险人群的比例不是很敏感。