In India, the road transport sector contributed around 90% of total transport CO₂ emissions in 2018. Air pollution from the road transport sector has detrimental effects on both air quality and human health. The policies implemented have a long-term impact on the amount of vehicle emissions and characteristics of fleet vehicles. The present study analyzes emissions from India’s road transport sector using the bottom-up activity approach model. Future vehicle stocks in India are projected up to 2030 using a hybrid growth model approach. Vehicle emissions of CO₂, CO, particulate matter (PM), and NOx are analyzed for India's reference (2020) and projected years fleet (2030). The emissions from the projected fleet are subjected to different mitigation scenarios such as retrofit and scrappage policies to estimate the emission reduction potentials of these scenarios from the future fleet of India. The analysis of the study indicates that the retrofit policies are more effective in reducing vehicle emissions than the scrappage policies. Retrofit policies such as the advancement in emission norms (shift to Bharat Stage (BS)-VI from BS-IV), the increased share of compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles, and fuel efficiency (FE) improvements have reduced vehicle emissions significantly compared to the scrappage of old vehicles from the fleet. The low impact of scrappage policies is attributed to the projected fleet’s lower share of old vehicles (10–15%). While retrofit policies have a significant impact as they largely affect 85% to 90% of young vehicles (less than ten years of age) in 2030. A combination of both policies is suggested to control future fleet emissions. The study also conducts sensitivity analysis, which indicates a significant influence of the emission factors in the vehicle emission analysis and GDP growth rates in the vehicle fleet projection.

在印度，2018 年公路运输部门占交通运输 CO ₂排放总量的 90% 左右。公路运输部门的空气污染对空气质量和人类健康都有不利影响。实施的政策对车辆排放量和车队车辆的特性有长期影响。本研究使用自下而上的活动方法模型分析了印度道路运输部门的排放量。使用混合增长模型方法预测到 2030 年印度未来的汽车库存。CO ₂车辆排放、一氧化碳、颗粒物 (PM) 和氮氧化物分析供印度参考（2020 年）和预计年数（2030 年）。预计车队的排放受到不同的缓解情景的影响，例如改造和报废政策，以估计印度未来车队的这些情景的减排潜力。研究分析表明，改造政策在减少汽车排放方面比报废政策更有效。排放标准的提高（从 BS-IV 转向 Bharat Stage (BS)-VI）、压缩天然气 (CNG) 车辆份额的增加以及燃油效率 (FE) 的改进等改造政策显着降低了车辆排放到报废车队的旧车。报废政策的低影响归因于预计车队的旧车比例较低（10-15%）。虽然改造政策具有重大影响，因为它们在 2030 年主要影响 85% 至 90% 的年轻车辆（车龄小于 10 年）。建议将这两种政策结合起来控制未来的车队排放。该研究还进行了敏感性分析，这表明车辆排放分析中的排放因子和车队预测中的 GDP 增长率有显着影响。