This paper provides two microeconomic models that derive the social cost of a low emission zone (LEZ) for light vehicles. We apply the models to a proposed LEZ for light vehicles in Stockholm, which would prohibit diesel cars of Euro 5 or lower and gasoline cars of Euro 4 or lower in the inner city (25 km²) and conduct a cost-benefit analysis of the proposed LEZ. The first model is based on how an increase in user cost impacts traffic volumes in the inner city. This rather conventional user cost calculation of drivers’ loss requires however some strong assumptions. The second model shows that drivers’ losses can be calculated based on price changes observed on the used car market. Our empirical results indicate that the welfare loss resulting from the two models are of the same magnitude. The forecast benefits of the LEZ consist primarily of air quality improvements leading to health benefits. Even if our empirical results must be interpreted with caution, it seems clear that the costs considerably outweigh the benefits in this case study.

本文提供了两种微观经济模型，用于推导出轻型车辆低排放区 (LEZ) 的社会成本。我们将这些模型应用于斯德哥尔摩拟议的轻型车辆低排放区，该区域禁止在市中心（25 公里²) 并对提议的 LEZ 进行成本效益分析。第一个模型基于用户成本的增加如何影响市中心的交通量。然而，这种相当传统的驾驶员损失的用户成本计算需要一些强有力的假设。第二个模型表明，可以根据在二手车市场上观察到的价格变化来计算驾驶员的损失。我们的实证结果表明，两种模型造成的福利损失幅度相同。LEZ 的预测效益主要包括改善空气质量，从而带来健康效益。即使我们的实证结果必须谨慎解释，但很明显，在本案例研究中，成本大大超过了收益。