This paper provides insights into the time-varying dynamics of the German business cycle over the last five decades. To do so, I employ an open-economy time-varying parameter VAR with stochastic volatility, which I estimate by quasi-Bayesian techniques. The reduced-form analysis reveals substantial shifts in the variables’ long-run growth rates and shock volatilities over time. German trend inflation has strongly decreased and settled at a historically low level. GDP growth volatility exhibits marked fluctuations over time and has dropped to historically low levels only after the global financial crisis. The structural analysis employs externally identified oil supply shocks along with a recursive identification scheme to identify key macroeconomic shocks. The analysis reveals strong fluctuations in both the impact responses of macroeconomic aggregates to these shocks and the shock propagation processes. Thus, I conclude that business cycle stabilization in Germany is driven by both good policy and good luck.

中文翻译：

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德国商业周期的时变动态：一项综合调查*

本文提供了对过去 50 年德国商业周期随时间变化的动态的见解。为此，我采用了具有随机波动率的开放经济时变参数 VAR，我通过准贝叶斯技术对其进行估计。简化形式的分析揭示了变量的长期增长率和冲击波动率随时间的重大变化。德国趋势通胀已大幅下降并稳定在历史低位。GDP 增长波动性随着时间的推移呈现出明显的波动，仅在全球金融危机之后才降至历史低位。结构分析采用外部识别的石油供应冲击以及递归识别方案来识别关键的宏观经济冲击。分析揭示了宏观经济总量对这些冲击的影响反应和冲击传播过程的强烈波动。因此，我得出结论，德国商业周期的稳定是由好政策和好运气共同推动的。