Background: A single measurement of grip strength (GS) could predict the incidence of cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, the long-term pattern of GS and its association with incident CVD are rarely studied. We aimed to characterize the GS trajectory and determine its association with the incidence of CVD (myocardial infarction, angina, stroke, and heart failure).

Methods: This study included 5,300 individuals without CVD from a British community-based cohort in 2012 (the baseline). GS was repeatedly measured in 2004, 2008, and 2012. Long-term GS patterns were identified by the group-based trajectory model. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the associations between GS trajectories and incident CVD. We identified three GS trajectories separately for men and women based on the 2012 GS measurement and change patterns during 2004–2012.

Results: After a median follow-up of 6.1 years (during 2012–2019), 392 participants developed major CVD, including 114 myocardial infarction, 119 angina, 169 stroke, and 44 heart failure. Compared with the high stable group, participants with low stable GS was associated with a higher incidence of CVD incidence [hazards ratio (HR): 2.17; 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.52–3.09; P <0.001], myocardial infarction (HR: 2.01; 95% CI: 1.05–3.83; P = 0.035), stroke (HR: 1.96; 95% CI: 1.11–3.46; P = 0.020), and heart failure (HR: 6.91; 95% CI: 2.01–23.79; P = 0.002) in the fully adjusted models.

Conclusions: The low GS trajectory pattern was associated with a higher risk of CVD. Continuous monitoring of GS values could help identify people at risk of CVD.

背景：单次测量握力 (GS) 可以预测心血管疾病 (CVD) 的发病率。然而，很少研究 GS 的长期模式及其与 CVD 事件的关联。我们旨在表征 GS 轨迹并确定其与 CVD（心肌梗塞、心绞痛、中风和心力衰竭）发生率的关联。

方法：该研究包括 2012 年英国社区队列中的 5,300 名无 CVD 个体（基线）。2004、2008 和 2012 年重复测量了 GS。长期 GS 模式由基于组的轨迹模型确定。Cox 比例风险模型用于检查 GS 轨迹与事件 CVD 之间的关联。我们根据 2012 年 GS 测量和 2004-2012 年期间的变化模式分别确定了男性和女性的三个 GS 轨迹。

结果：在中位随访 6.1 年（2012-2019 年期间）后，392 名参与者发生了严重的心血管疾病，包括 114 名心肌梗死、119 名心绞痛、169 名中风和 44 名心力衰竭。与高稳定组相比，低稳定 GS 的参与者与更高的 CVD 发病率相关 [风险比 (HR)：2.17；95% 置信区间 (CI)：1.52–3.09；磷 <0.001]，心肌梗塞（HR：2.01；95% CI：1.05–3.83； 磷 = 0.035)，中风（HR：1.96；95% CI：1.11–3.46； 磷 = 0.020）和心力衰竭（HR：6.91；95% CI：2.01–23.79； 磷 = 0.002) 在完全调整的模型中。

结论：低 GS 轨迹模式与较高的 CVD 风险相关。持续监测 GS 值可以帮助识别有 CVD 风险的人。