Computing such correlation coefficient would be straightforward had we had available the rankings given by the prize committee to all scientists in the pool. In reality we only have citation rankings for all scientists. This means, however, that we have the ordinal rankings of the prize winners with regard to citation metrics. I use maximum likelihood method to infer the most probable correlation coefficient to produce the observed pattern of ordinal ranks of the prize winners. I get the correlation coefficients of 0.47 and 0.59 between the composite citation indicator and getting Abel Prize and Fields Medal, respectively. The correlation coefficient between getting a Nobel Prize and the Q-factor is 0.65. These coefficients are of the same magnitude as the correlation coefficient between Elo ratings of the chess players and their popularity measured as numbers of webpages mentioning the players.

中文翻译：

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引用指标与获得诺贝尔奖或阿贝尔奖之间的相关系数

如果我们能够获得奖项委员会为所有科学家提供的排名，那么计算这种相关系数会很简单。实际上，我们只有所有科学家的引用排名。然而，这意味着我们有获奖者在引用指标方面的顺序排名。我使用最大似然法来推断最可能的相关系数，以产生观察到的获奖者有序排名模式。我得到了复合引文指标与获得阿贝尔奖和菲尔兹奖之间的相关系数分别为 0.47 和 0.59。获得诺贝尔奖与 Q 因子之间的相关系数为 0.65。