Abstract

Methodological approaches to water consumption forecasts are described. Demographic forecast and forecasts of the coefficient of water demand for regions in the Don basin are used to forecast domestic water demand. Summary data on the extension of irrigated lands over 2008–2018 in 15 constituent entities of the Russian Federation in the Don basin are given. The actual and forecasted areas of irrigated lands for 2025 and 2030 are presented. Differently directed changes in water consumption volumes are forecasted for three economy sectors: a decrease in the housing and utilities infrastructure, a minor increase in the industry, and a considerable growth in the agriculture. By the authors’ estimates for the basin as a whole, the total volume of water consumption will slightly increase by 2030.

中文翻译：

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顿河流域俄罗斯部分用水量预测

摘要

描述了用水量预测的方法论方法。人口统计预测和顿河流域地区需水系数预测用于预测生活用水需求。提供了 2008 年至 2018 年俄罗斯联邦 15 个主体在顿河流域灌溉土地扩展的汇总数据。列出了 2025 年和 2030 年灌溉土地的实际和预测面积。预计三个经济部门的用水量将出现不同方向的变化：住房和公用事业基础设施的减少，工业的小幅增长，​​以及农业的显着增长。根据作者对整个流域的估计，到 2030 年，总用水量将略有增加。