The present study aims to assess the recent changes and trends in the extreme climate indices in the Kashmir basin using the observational records from 1980 to 2016. The extreme climate indices were computed using the ClimPACT2 software and a total of 39 indices were selected for the analysis having particular utility to various sectors like agriculture, water resources, energy consumption, and human health. Besides adopting the station scale analysis, regional averages were computed for each index. In terms of the mean climatology, an increase has been observed in the annual mean temperature with a magnitude of 0.024 °C/year. Further, differential warming patterns have been observed in the mean maximum and minimum temperatures with mean maximum temperature revealing higher increases than mean minimum temperature. On the other hand, the annual precipitation shows a decrease over most of the region, and the decreases are more pronouncing in the higher altitudes. The trend analysis of the extreme indices reveals that in consonance with the rising temperature there has been an increase in the warm temperatures and decrease in the cold temperatures across the Kashmir basin. Furthermore, our analysis suggests a decrease in the extreme precipitation events. The drought indices viz., Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), and Standardised Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) manifest decreasing trends with the tendency towards drier regimes implying the need for better water resource management in the region under changing climate.

本研究旨在利用 1980 年至 2016 年的观测记录评估克什米尔盆地极端气候指数的近期变化和趋势。极端气候指数使用ClimPACT2计算软件和总共 39 个指标被选中进行分析，这些指标对农业、水资源、能源消耗和人类健康等各个部门都有特别的用处。除了采用站点尺度分析外，还计算了每个指标的区域平均值。在平均气候方面，已观察到年平均气温以 0.024 °C/年的幅度增加。此外，在平均最高温度和最低温度中观察到不同的变暖模式，平均最高温度显示出比平均最低温度更高的增加。另一方面，大部分地区年降水量呈下降趋势，且在海拔较高的地区下降更为明显。极端指数的趋势分析表明，随着气温升高，克什米尔盆地暖温升高，冷温降低。此外，我们的分析表明极端降水事件有所减少。干旱指数，即标准化降水指数 (SPI) 和标准化降水蒸发蒸腾指数 (SPEI) 表现出下降趋势，趋向于干旱状态，这意味着需要在气候变化的情况下对该地区进行更好的水资源管理。