Abstract

The purpose of this research is to determine the amount and value of carbon stock in Southwestern Ethiopia's coffee forest from 1978 to 2050, as well as carbon sequestration from 1988 to 2050. Different time-series satellite data were acquired and classified into land-use categories using ArcGIS and ENVI 5:0, followed by IDRISI forecasts up to 2050, and finally modeling with INVEST. Data were collected within the plot constructed in a systematic random sampling manner using quadrates 20 m X 20 m. The social cost of carbon (US$12/tCO₂e) used to estimate the monetary worth of the services. Forest conversion anticipated to reduce the carbon stock by 1.86 Mt by the end of 2050, from 65.8 Mt in 1978 to 7.01 Mt in 2018. The rate of Carbon sequestration was 2.1Mt/year at the end of 1998, and it will be reduced to 1.49Mt/year by the end of 2050. Overall, 121.1Mt of CO₂ is sequestered over 63 years, but there was also emission from deforestation and service loss (84.4Mt), resulting a net sequestered CO₂ of 36.6Mt by the end of 2050. The total elemental carbon stock value in 1978 was $2. 896 billion, this will be reached $2.5billion ($9.175 billion CO₂e) at the end of 2050. The value of sequestration will be estimated at $1.715 billion, but with a value loss of $1.153 billion, the net sink value from 1988 to 2050 will be $0.6 billion. In general, these findings show that the forest region will have a total storage and sequestration value (CO₂e) of $9.775 billion by the end of 2050. The carbon worth in this forest area is thus a good indicator of the importance, and thus the value estimate here may well persuade policymakers to revise their forest-related policy and provide site-specific information to preserve this remnant forest.

摘要

本研究的目的是确定1978年至2050年埃塞俄比亚西南部咖啡林的碳储量和价值，以及1988年至2050年的碳固存。获取不同时间序列的卫星数据，并将其划分为土地利用类别使用 ArcGIS 和 ENVI 5:0，然后使用 IDRISI 预测到 2050 年，最后使用 INVEST 进行建模。数据是在使用 20 m X 20 m 方格以系统随机抽样方式构建的小区内收集的。碳的社会成本（US$12/tCO ₂e) 用于估计服务的货币价值。预计到 2050 年底，森林转化将使碳储量减少 1.86 Mt，从 1978 年的 65.8 Mt 减少到 2018 年的 7.01 Mt。 1998 年底碳固存率为 2.1 Mt/年，并将减少到到 2050 年底为 1.49Mt/年。总体而言，在 63 年内封存了121.1Mt 的 CO ₂，但也有来自森林砍伐和服务损失的排放（84.4Mt），导致到年底净封存 CO ₂为 36.6Mt 2050 年。1978 年的元素碳储量总价值为 2 美元。8,960 亿，这将达到 25 亿美元（91.75 亿美元 CO ₂e) 到 2050 年底，封存价值估计为 17.15 亿美元，但价值损失为 11.53 亿美元，1988 年至 2050 年的净汇值为 6 亿美元。总的来说，这些调查结果表明，到2050 年底，森林区域的总储存和封存价值 (CO ₂ e) 将达到 97.75 亿美元。因此，该森林区域的碳价值是重要性的一个很好的指标，因此这里的价值估计很可能说服政策制定者修改他们的森林相关政策，并提供特定地点的信息来保护这片残余森林。