Analyzing the impact of El Nilo Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the number of tourists is essential in realizing the sustainable development of natural scenic spots. From the current research results, research on the effects of ENSO on tourism focuses on the impact of the formation of the natural environment. However, there is a lack of ENSO-related research on the number of people arriving at natural attractions. This paper considers the adjustment effects of personal disposable income, per capita GDP, and population size and constructs a new framework of ENSO’s influence on tourism. This paper builds a system GMM (Gaussian Mixture Model) and analyzes the impact of ENSO on tourist flow by using Google Trend data (big data technology) to obtain annual passenger flow data of 48 natural scenic spots in the United States (mainly national parks and national forests). The empirical results show that the increase in ENSO has led to a significant decrease in visitors to natural attractions in the United States. Moreover, the increase in personal disposable income, per capita GDP, and population size can weaken the relationship between ENSO and the number of tourists. This research expands and enriches the theoretical perspective of ENSO and outdoor tourism.

中文翻译：

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厄尔尼诺南方涛动对自然景点游客数量的影响：个人可支配收入、人均 GDP 和人口的调节作用

分析厄尔尼罗南方涛动（ENSO）对游客数量的影响对于实现自然景区的可持续发展至关重要。从目前的研究成果来看，ENSO对旅游影响的研究主要集中在自然环境形成的影响上。然而，关于到达自然景点的人数，缺乏与 ENSO 相关的研究。本文考虑了个人可支配收入、人均GDP和人口规模的调整效应，构建了ENSO对旅游影响的新框架。本文构建系统GMM（高斯混合模型），利用Google Trend数据（大数据技术），分析ENSO对旅游客流的影响，获取美国48个自然景区（主要是国家公园和国家森林）。实证结果表明，ENSO 的增加导致美国自然景点的游客显着减少。此外，个人可支配收入、人均GDP和人口规模的增加会削弱ENSO与游客数量之间的关系。本研究拓展和丰富了ENSO和户外旅游的理论视角。个人可支配收入、人均GDP和人口规模的增加会削弱ENSO与游客数量之间的关系。本研究拓展和丰富了ENSO和户外旅游的理论视角。个人可支配收入、人均GDP和人口规模的增加会削弱ENSO与游客数量之间的关系。本研究拓展和丰富了ENSO和户外旅游的理论视角。