Estimating environmental lead exposure using ecologic risk models is an inexpensive strategy to inform public health departments and to develop location-based intervention strategies such as targeted screening and mitigation. Importantly, studies in this area have not assessed temporal and spatio-temporal lead exposure risk trends. Due to lead abatement efforts and targeted screening efforts, it is anticipated that lead exposure risk has decreased over time. However, it is unknown if decreases have occurred, and if the decreases are evenly distributed across neighborhoods. Thus, the purpose of this study was to examine the association between neighborhood deprivation and risk of elevated blood lead levels (EBLLs) in both temporal and spatio-temporal contexts within the US state of Maryland in 2005–2015. To consider the temporal dimension of lead risk, we used a novel extension of Bayesian index models to estimate time-varying neighborhood deprivation indices along with time-varying index effects. The results showed that overall EBLL proportion decreased over time, from a high of 0.11 in 2006 to a low of 0.02 in 2015. The association between neighborhood deprivation and EBLL risk was positive and significant annually, but generally diminished over time. The most important variables in the neighborhood deprivation index were percent of houses built before 1940 and median household income. In summary, using Bayesian index models that can account for both temporal and spatio-temporal contexts is a promising approach to inform public health efforts to remediate lead and focus testing efforts and may be useful in studies in other geographic areas and times.

使用生态风险模型估计环境铅暴露是一种廉价的策略，可以通知公共卫生部门并制定基于位置的干预策略，例如有针对性的筛查和缓解。重要的是，该领域的研究尚未评估时间和时空铅暴露风险趋势。由于铅减排工作和有针对性的筛查工作，预计铅暴露风险会随着时间的推移而降低。但是，不知道是否发生了减少，以及减少是否均匀分布在各个社区。因此，本研究的目的是在 2005 年至 2015 年美国马里兰州的时间和时空环境中检查社区剥夺与血铅水平升高 (EBLL) 风险之间的关联。为了考虑铅风险的时间维度，我们使用贝叶斯指数模型的新扩展来估计时变邻里剥夺指数以及时变指数效应。结果表明，整体 EBLL 比例随着时间的推移而下降，从 2006 年的 0.11 的高点下降到 2015 年的 0.02 的低点。邻里剥夺与 EBLL 风险之间的关联每年呈显着正相关，但随着时间的推移普遍减弱。邻里剥夺指数中最重要的变量是 1940 年之前建造的房屋百分比和家庭收入中位数。总之，