Due to the widespread consumption of antibiotics by humans and animals, antibiotic residues from human and animal excrements are released into the environment through domestic sewage and breeding wastewater, which ultimately affect the ecological environment and human health. In this study, the concentrations of 10 antibiotics in the air, water, soil, and sediment from 2013 to 2019 in Qingpu District of the integrated demonstration zone of the Yangtze River Delta were predicated by developing a dynamic Level IV fugacity model. The influence of seasonal environmental factors (e.g., temperature, rainfall) on the distribution and migration of antibiotics in multi-media was also explored. The simulation results show that the 10 antibiotics mainly existed in water and sediment. The concentrations of antibiotics in air, water, soil, and sediment were 0–7.629 × 10⁻¹⁴ ng/L, 1.187 × 10⁻¹⁰-16.793 ng/L, 1.042 × 10⁻¹⁴-3.500 × 10⁻¹¹ ng/g and 8.015 × 10⁻¹²-14.188 ng/g, respectively. It was also found that the increase in temperature and rainfall can reduce the migration rate of some antibiotics into the water and sediment phases. The flux analysis of the cross-media migration and transformation of antibiotics in Qingpu District shows that advection was the prime input and output paths of antibiotics in the water. Moreover, the prime input and output paths of antibiotics in sediment were sedimentation from water to sediment and degradation. Sensitivity analysis shows that the characteristics of antibiotic emission, degradation rate, and K_oc were the most influential parameters for target chemicals. The results of risk assessment based on Monte Carlo method reveal that the overall risk level of antibiotics in sediment was relatively risk-free, and the risk of antibiotics in water decreased in the order of tetracyclines > β-lactams > fluoroquinolones > macrolides > sulfonamides.

由于人类和动物广泛使用抗生素，人畜排泄物中的抗生素残留通过生活污水和养殖废水排放到环境中，最终影响生态环境和人类健康。本研究通过建立动态IV级逸度模型，对长三角综合示范区青浦区2013-2019年空气、水体、土壤和沉积物中10种抗生素的浓度进行了预测。还探讨了季节性环境因素（如温度、降雨）对抗生素在多媒体中的分布和迁移的影响。模拟结果表明，10种抗生素主要存在于水体和底泥中。空气、水、土壤中抗生素的浓度，^-14  ng/L、1.187 × 10 ^-10 -16.793 ng/L、1.042 × 10 ^-14 -3.500 × 10 ^-11  ng/g 和 8.015 × 10 ^-12 -14.188 ng/g。还发现温度和降雨量的增加可以降低一些抗生素进入水相和沉积物相的迁移率。青浦区抗生素跨介质迁移转化通量分析表明，对流是水中抗生素的主要输入输出路径。此外，沉积物中抗生素的主要输入和输出路径是从水到沉积物的沉积和降解。敏感性分析表明，抗生素释放量、降解率和K _{oc 的特征}是目标化学品最有影响的参数。基于蒙特卡罗法的​​风险评估结果表明，沉积物中抗生素的总体风险水平相对无风险，水中抗生素的风险依次为四环素类>β-内酰胺类>氟喹诺酮类>大环内酯类>磺胺类。