Inland river terminal lakes help maintain the regional ecological environment. However, terminal lakes in arid regions have shrunk dramatically over the past 50 years. We extracted the water areas of Taitema Lake in the arid region of Central Asia and calculated the fractional vegetation coverage (FVC) of the surrounding areas based on Landsat images from 1989 to 2019. We analysed the evolution and driving factors of the FVC and lake area before and after implementing an ecological water conveyance (EWC) project in 2000. The contributions of the driving factors were derived using regression analysis, and the effect coefficients were calculated with a path analysis. Results showed that before EWC (1989–1999), Taitema Lake was dry, the proportions of medium and high FVC areas were small, and FVC varied moderately. The contributions of land use and inflow water from Qarqan River to the regional FVC were 57.4% and 45.3%, respectively, and the effect coefficients of temperature and precipitation on FVC were 0.09 and 0.02, respectively. Human-dominated land-use change was the main factor affecting FVC change. After EWC (2000–2019), the water in Taitema Lake was restored, and the average annual proportions of medium and high FVC were 9.5% and 2.7% higher than the pre-EWC period, respectively. The contributions of land use and river inflow to the water area were 39.1% and 60.9%, and those to FVC were 40.7% and 59.3%, respectively. Precipitation had a slightly stronger effect on the water area and FVC than the temperature in the study area, whereas the influence of river inflow on the water area and FVC was less evident than that of the EWC. EWC can replenish lake water quickly, which is essential for improving the ecological environment of terminal lake areas.

内河终端湖泊有助于维护区域生态环境。然而，干旱地区的终端湖泊在过去 50 年里急剧萎缩。基于1989-2019年Landsat影像，提取了中亚干旱区泰特玛湖水域，计算了周边地区植被覆盖度（FVC），分析了FVC和湖泊面积的演变和驱动因素2000 年实施生态输水（EWC）项目前后。采用回归分析推导出驱动因素的贡献，并通过路径分析计算影响系数。结果表明，在EWC（1989-1999）之前，台特玛湖干涸，中高FVC区比例较小，FVC变化不大。土地利用和察尔干河入流水对区域FVC的贡献分别为57.4%和45.3%，温度和降水对FVC的影响系数分别为0.09和0.02。人类主导的土地利用变化是影响粮食价值链变化的主要因素。EWC（2000-2019）后，泰特玛湖水体恢复，中高FVC年均比例分别比EWC前提高9.5%和2.7%。土地利用和河流入流对水域的贡献分别为39.1%和60.9%，对FVC的贡献分别为40.7%和59.3%。降水对研究区水域面积和FVC的影响略强于研究区温度，而河流入流对水域面积和FVC的影响不如EWC明显。