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The cognitive and experiential effects of flood risk framings and experience, and their influence on adaptation investment behaviour
Climate Risk Management ( IF 4.8 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-14 , DOI: 10.1016/j.crm.2021.100359
Ambika Markanday 1 , Ibon Galarraga 1, 2
Affiliation  

This study explores how decision makers invest in adaptation to protect against flood risks in response to a) different framings of flood risk information, and b) after experiencing losses from a hypothetical flood event. An incentivised economic lab experiment is conducted on a sample of students in Bilbao (Basque Country, Spain). A 2 × 2 between-subject design is used to measure investment behaviour with and without exposure to a flood risk map and after exposure to impacts framed as economic losses versus number of persons affected. Experience is measured through a 2-period repeated game within-subject design. Flood risk maps and impacts framed as number of persons affected were conducive to more experiential forms of decision-making, while decisions based on impacts framed as economic losses were more cognitive in nature. Those that saw text-only framings used a combination of cognitive and experiential factors for making decisions. While exposure to maps evoked more affect-driven responses, they were associated with lower ratings of positive affect and self-efficacy, and resulted in lower investments in protection compared to text-only framings. Greater experiential processing was found for impact framings based on persons affected, but they were not especially effective at increasing personal relevance of the issue or in driving investments. Individuals who experienced losses from a hypothetical flood event had greater ratings of negative affect, and made subsequent decisions that were more affect-driven in nature. In contrast, individuals who did not experience losses had greater ratings of positive affect, and made subsequent decisions based on primarily cognitive factors. Investments in protection reduced for those who did not experience losses, and remained the same for those who did experience losses. Results suggest that changes in adaptation investments between decision points may be dependent on both the experience (or lack thereof) of losses, as well as the extent to which individuals were risk-averse or risk-taking in previous investment decisions.



中文翻译:

洪水风险框架和经验的认知和经验效应,及其对适应投资行为的影响

本研究探讨了决策者如何投资于适应以抵御洪水风险,以应对 a) 不同的洪水风险信息框架,以及 b) 在经历了假设性洪水事件造成的损失之后。对毕尔巴鄂(西班牙巴斯克地区)的学生样本进行了激励经济实验室实验。2 × 2 主体间设计用于衡量暴露于和未暴露于洪水风险图以及暴露于被定义为经济损失与受影响人数的影响之后的投资行为。体验是通过一个 2 周期重复游戏内的主题设计来衡量的。以受灾人数为框架的洪水风险图和影响有利于更具经验的决策形式,而基于以经济损失为框架的影响的决策在本质上更具认知性。那些看到纯文本框架的人使用认知和经验因素的组合来做出决定。虽然接触地图会引起更多由情感驱动的反应,但它们与较低的积极情感和自我效能评级相关,并导致与纯文本框架相比,在保护方面的投资较低。发现基于受影响人员的影响框架的经验处理效果更好,但它们在增加问题的个人相关性或推动投资方面并不是特别有效。经历过假设性洪水事件损失的个人具有更高的负面影响评级,并且随后做出的决策本质上更受影响驱动。相比之下,没有经历过损失的人对积极情绪的评价更高,并主要基于认知因素做出后续决定。没有遭受损失的人的保护投资减少,而遭受损失的人则保持不变。结果表明,决策点之间适应投资的变化可能取决于损失的经历(或缺乏损失),以及个人在以前的投资决策中规避风险或承担风险的程度。

更新日期:2021-09-19
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