The two types of El Niño events simulated by the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1) model and its “spring predictability barrier” (SPB) associations are examined. By conducting the ensemble hindcast experiments related to the sea temperature on the whole Pacific, both of the predictions for CP- and EP-El Niño show a significant SPB phenomenon, but the CP-El Niño features a much weaker SPB compared to the EP-El Niño. Further analyses revealed that, for CP-El Niño events, the initial sea temperature errors of the North Pacific with triple-like shape, referred to as negative Victoria Mode (VM) induces the largest prediction errors in Niño4 areas and modulates the intensities of CP-El Niño events. While for EP-El Niño events, the initial sea temperature errors in the subsurface layer of the western equatorial Pacific and the upper layer of the Southeast Pacific (15–30ºS) with the meridional mode induce the largest prediction errors in Niño3 areas and modulates the intensities of EP-El Niño events. Obviously, results stress that, in order to reduce final prediction errors and obtain better predictions in terms of intensity on the two types of El Niño events, we should mainly focus on initial sea temperature accuracy in not only the subsurface layer of the west equatorial Pacific but also the surface layer of southeast Pacific and the region covered by the VM-like mode in the North Pacific.

检查了地球物理流体动力学实验室气候模型版本 2p1 (GFDL CM2p1) 模型模拟的两种类型的厄尔尼诺现象及其“春季可预测性障碍”(SPB) 关联。通过在整个太平洋上进行与海温相关的集合后报实验，CP-和EP-El Niño的预测都显示出显着的SPB现象，但与EP-相比，CP-El Niño的SPB要弱得多。厄尔尼诺。进一步分析表明，对于CP-El Niño事件，具有三重形状的北太平洋初始海温误差，称为负维多利亚模式（VM）在Niño4地区引起最大的预测误差并调节CP的强度-厄尔尼诺事件。而对于 EP-El Niño 事件，赤道西太平洋次表层和东南太平洋上层（15-30ºS）的初始海温误差在Niño3地区引起最大的预测误差，并调制了EP-El Niño事件的强度。显然，结果强调，为了减少最终预测误差并在强度方面对两类厄尔尼诺事件进行更好的预测，我们不仅应关注赤道西太平洋次表层的初始海温精度。还有东南太平洋的表层和北太平洋VM-like模式覆盖的区域。