Centuries of practice and an array of public health literature support social distancing (SD), or self-quarantine, as a valuable nonpharmaceutical intervention. To convince individuals to engage in behaviors that limit infection, public health professionals communicate risk and hazard based on application of protection motivation theory (PMT). The COVID-19 pandemic presents an opportunity to explore the efficacy of PMT in the context of a novel coronavirus with unique public health implications. We test an integrative conceptual model of social distancing compliance in U.S. counties and examine the mediating impact of SD on community spread of infection. We find that PMT does impact individual behavior, observing that the proportion of vulnerable populations affects social distancing compliance. However, actions to protect individual health are made within the context of economic concerns and priorities. While results indicate that PMT influences behavior, the expected relationship between that behavior and spread of disease in the community is not found. We do not repudiate SD or the value of PMT, but we suggest that these results may indicate that communication of risk in the context of COVID-19 may need community, as well as individual, framing.

中文翻译：

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社会疏远对美国社区病例数的影响：在 COVID-19 大流行的早期阶段测试保护动机理论的有效性

数百年的实践和一系列公共卫生文献都支持将社交距离 (SD) 或自我隔离作为一种有价值的非药物干预措施。为了说服个人从事限制感染的行为，公共卫生专业人员根据保护动机理论 (PMT) 的应用来交流风险和危害。COVID-19 大流行提供了一个机会，可以在具有独特公共卫生影响的新型冠状病毒背景下探索 PMT 的功效。我们测试了美国各县遵守社会距离的综合概念模型，并检查了 SD 对社区感染传播的中介影响。我们发现 PMT 确实会影响个人行为，观察到弱势群体的比例会影响遵守社交距离的规定。然而，保护个人健康的行动是在经济关切和优先事项的背景下采取的。虽然结果表明 PMT 会影响行为，但未发现该行为与疾病在社区中传播之间的预期关系。我们不否认 SD 或 PMT 的价值，但我们建议这些结果可能表明 COVID-19 背景下的风险交流可能需要社区以及个人的框架。