Highly concentrated precipitation during the rainy season poses challenges to the South Korean water resources management in efficiently storing and redistributing water resources. Under the new climate regime, water resources management is likely to become more challenging with regards to water-related disaster risk and deterioration of water quality. To alleviate such issues by adjusting management plans, this study examined the impact of climate change on the streamflow in the Bocheongcheon basin of the Geumgang river. A globally accepted hydrologic model, the HEC-HMS model, was chosen for the simulation. By the calibration and the validation processes, the model performance was evaluated to range between “satisfactory” and “very good”. The calibrated model was then used to simulate the future streamflow over six decades from 2041 to 2100 under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The results indicated significant increase in the future streamflow of the study site in all months and seasons over the simulation period. Intensification of seasonal differences and fluctuations was projected under RCP 8.5, implying a challenge for water resources managers to secure stable sources of clean water and to prevent water-related disasters. The analysis of the simulation results was applied to suggest possible local adaptive water resources management policy.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对韩国锦江波青川流域近期和远期水流的影响评估

雨季高度集中的降水对韩国水资源管理在有效储存和重新分配水资源方面提出了挑战。在新的气候制度下，水资源管理在与水有关的灾害风险和水质恶化方面可能变得更具挑战性。为了通过调整管理计划来缓解这些问题，本研究考察了气候变化对金刚江 Bocheongcheon 流域水流的影响。选择全球公认的水文模型 HEC-HMS 模型进行模拟。通过校准和验证过程，模型性能被评估为介于“满意”和“非常好”之间。然后使用校准模型模拟 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 下从 2041 年到 2100 年的 60 年间的未来水流。结果表明，在模拟期间的所有月份和季节，研究地点的未来流量均显着增加。RCP 8.5 预计季节性差异和波动会加剧，这意味着水资源管理者面临着确保稳定的清洁水源和预防与水有关的灾害的挑战。模拟结果的分析被用于建议可能的当地适应性水资源管理政策。这意味着水资源管理者面临着确保稳定的清洁水源和预防与水有关的灾害的挑战。模拟结果的分析被用于建议可能的当地适应性水资源管理政策。这意味着水资源管理者面临着确保稳定的清洁水源和预防与水有关的灾害的挑战。模拟结果的分析被用于建议可能的当地适应性水资源管理政策。