Using species distribution models (SDMs), we predicted the distribution of 170 plant species under different climatic scenarios (current and future climatic conditions) and used this information to create invasion risk maps to identify potential invasion hot spots in California. The risk of invasion by individual species was also assessed using species’ predicted area in combination with some biological traits associated with invasiveness (growth form, reproduction mechanisms, and age of maturity). A higher number of species would find suitable climatic conditions along the coast; the Central Western (CW) and South Western (SW) were ecoregions where a higher number of species were predicted. Overall, hot spots of species distribution were similar under current and future climatic conditions; however, individual species’ predicted area (increase or decrease) was variable depending on the climate change scenario and the greenhouse gas emission. Out of the 170 species assessed, 22% ranked as high-risk species, with herbs, grasses, and vines accounting for 78% within this risk class, and a high proportion (67%) of Asteraceae species ranked as high risk. This study suggests that current climatic conditions of the central and south coastal regions of California would be considered as hot spots of new invasions, and for some species this risk might increase with hotter and drier future climatic conditions.

中文翻译：

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评估加州不同气候变化情景下植物物种入侵的风险

使用物种分布模型 (SDM)，我们预测了 170 种植物物种在不同气候情景（当前和未来气候条件）下的分布，并利用这些信息创建入侵风险图，以确定加利福尼亚州潜在的入侵热点。还使用物种的预测面积以及与入侵相关的一些生物学特征（生长形式、繁殖机制和成熟年龄）来评估单个物种的入侵风险。更多的物种会在沿海找到合适的气候条件；中西部（CW）和西南（SW）是预测物种数量较多的生态区。总体而言，当前和未来气候条件下物种分布热点相似；然而，个别物种的预测面积（增加或减少）因气候变化情景和温室气体排放而异。在评估的 170 个物种中，22% 被列为高风险物种，草本植物、草本植物和藤本植物占该风险类别的 78%，菊科物种中高风险物种的比例很高（67%）。这项研究表明，加利福尼亚中部和南部沿海地区当前的气候条件将被视为新入侵的热点，对于某些物种，这种风险可能会随着未来气候条件的更热和更干燥而增加。高比例（67%）的菊科物种被列为高风险。这项研究表明，加利福尼亚中部和南部沿海地区当前的气候条件将被视为新入侵的热点，对于某些物种，这种风险可能会随着未来气候条件的更热和更干燥而增加。高比例（67%）的菊科物种被列为高风险。这项研究表明，加利福尼亚中部和南部沿海地区当前的气候条件将被视为新入侵的热点，对于某些物种，这种风险可能会随着未来气候条件的更热和更干燥而增加。