Energy efficiency programme monitoring is often based on ex-ante saving estimations. These estimations lack standardization, are prone to parameter errors, and neglect rebound effects. Moreover, a comparison with ex-post estimations is not systematically done. This paper proposes a simple methodology to assess ex-ante against ex-post estimations, using the distribution of the energy savings deficit, i.e. the normalized difference between reported and metered savings. This methodology is applied to a dataset of lighting renovation measures to first assess calculated savings against utility meter data. The mean energy savings deficit amounts to 39% for measures in small to medium enterprises and to 28% in common areas of buildings. Further analysis shows that this overestimation arises from both significant calculation errors and rebound effects. These analysis and findings are the first of their kind for these sectors. The methodology is further used to assess deemed savings approaches. The results show that coefficients based on time-of-use and the type of replaced technology provide a precision comparable to calculated savings. Further limitations of ex-ante quantitative monitoring are identified based on empirical observations of a utility-driven programme. This suggests that, instead of current practices, quantitative monitoring should focus on ex-post analysis of meter data. This would free up resources for a more qualitative follow-up of measure impacts to better inform programme and policy design.

能效计划监测通常基于事前节能估算。这些估计缺乏标准化，容易出现参数错误，并且忽略了回弹效应。此外，没有系统地进行与事后估计的比较。本文提出了一种简单的方法来评估事前与事后估计，使用节能赤字的分布，即报告节能量和计量节能量之间的标准化差异。该方法应用于照明改造措施的数据集，以首先根据公用事业仪表数据评估计算出的节省量。中小型企业措施的平均节能赤字为 39%，建筑公共区域的平均节能赤字为 28%。进一步的分析表明，这种高估是由显着的计算错误和反弹效应引起的。这些分析和发现在这些行业中尚属首次。该方法进一步用于评估认定的节约方法。结果表明，基于使用时间和替代技术类型的系数提供了与计算出的节省量相当的精度。根据对公用事业驱动计划的经验观察，确定了事前定量监测的进一步局限性。这表明，定量监测应侧重于仪表数据的事后分析，而不是当前的做法。这将腾出资源，用于对措施影响进行更定性的后续行动，以更好地为计划和政策设计提供信息。结果表明，基于使用时间和替代技术类型的系数提供了与计算出的节省量相当的精度。根据对公用事业驱动计划的经验观察，确定了事前定量监测的进一步局限性。这表明，定量监测应侧重于仪表数据的事后分析，而不是当前的做法。这将腾出资源，用于对措施影响进行更定性的后续行动，以更好地为计划和政策设计提供信息。结果表明，基于使用时间和替代技术类型的系数提供了与计算出的节省量相当的精度。根据对公用事业驱动计划的经验观察，确定了事前定量监测的进一步局限性。这表明，定量监测应侧重于仪表数据的事后分析，而不是当前的做法。这将腾出资源，用于对措施影响进行更定性的后续行动，以更好地为计划和政策设计提供信息。定量监测应侧重于仪表数据的事后分析。这将腾出资源，用于对措施影响进行更定性的后续行动，以更好地为计划和政策设计提供信息。定量监测应侧重于仪表数据的事后分析。这将腾出资源，用于对措施影响进行更定性的后续行动，以更好地为计划和政策设计提供信息。