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Identifying influential parameters of a multi-species fish size spectrum model for a northern temperate lake through sensitivity analyses
Ecological Modelling ( IF 3.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-10 , DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2021.109740
David M. Benoit 1 , Henrique C. Giacomini 2 , Cindy Chu 1, 3 , Donald A. Jackson 1
Affiliation  

Ecosystem-based approaches that take species interactions into account have shifted to the forefront of fisheries modelling and management in recent years. As a result, multispecies size spectrum models have been increasingly used to explore impacts of fishing on marine community dynamics. The use of these models, which has been facilitated by the development of the R package mizer, requires the estimation of species-specific parameters related to growth, reproduction, and feeding. These parameters, which may be estimated from imperfect information, may contribute to model uncertainty and thus reduce the value of information available for management purposes. In this study of a freshwater fishery, we conduct a comprehensive global sensitivity analysis pairing the Morris and Sobol methods to identify life-history parameters having the largest influence on model outputs. Here, we focus on (i) the size spectrum slope, (ii) the scatter around the linear relationship of the size spectrum, (iii) total biomass, and (iv) species diversity. We found that parameters relating to growth, namely the von Bertalanffy growth coefficient and asymptotic mass, had the greatest influence on our size spectrum model results. This was particularly true for top predators and the most abundant species. Our results suggest that estimation of growth parameters of top predators be given priority to reduce uncertainty in model output, and ultimately, fisheries management.



中文翻译:

通过敏感性分析确定北温带湖泊多物种鱼类尺寸谱模型的影响参数

近年来,考虑物种相互作用的基于生态系统的方法已转移到渔业建模和管理的前沿。因此,多物种体型谱模型越来越多地用于探索捕鱼对海洋群落动态的影响。R包mizer的开发促进了这些模型的使用,需要估计与生长、繁殖和喂养相关的物种特定参数。这些参数可能是从不完善的信息中估计出来的,可能会导致模型的不确定性,从而降低可用于管理目的的信息的价值。在这项淡水渔业研究中,我们进行了综合性全球敏感性分析,结合 Morris 和 Sobol 方法来确定对模型输出影响最大的生活史参数。在这里,我们关注 (i) 大小谱斜率,(ii) 大小谱线性关系周围的分散,(iii) 总生物量和 (iv) 物种多样性。我们发现与生长相关的参数,即 von Bertalanffy 生长系数和渐近质量,对我们的尺寸谱模型结果影响最大。对于顶级捕食者和最丰富的物种来说尤其如此。我们的结果表明,优先考虑顶级捕食者的生长参数估计,以减少模型输出的不确定性,最终减少渔业管理。

更新日期:2021-09-12
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