Several inflammation-related factors (IRFs) have been reported to predict organ failure of acute pancreatitis (AP) in previous clinical studies. However, there are a few shortcomings in these models. The aim of this study was to develop a new prediction model based on IRFs that could accurately identify the risk for organ failure in AP. Methods. 100 patients with their clinical information and IRF data (levels of 10 cytokines, percentages of different immune cells, and data obtained from white blood cell count) were retrospectively enrolled in this study, and 94 patients were finally selected for further analysis. Univariate and multivariate analysis were applied to evaluate the potential risk factors for the organ failure of AP. The area under the ROC curve (AUCs), sensitivity, and specificity of the relevant model were assessed to evaluate the prediction ability of IRFs. A new scoring system to predict the organ failure of AP was created based on the regression coefficient of a multivariate logistic regression model. Results. The incidence of OF in AP patients was nearly 16% (15/94) in our derivation cohort. Univariate analytic data revealed that IL6, IL8, IL10, MCP1, CD3+ CD4+ T lymphocytes, CD19+ B lymphocytes, PCT, APACHE II score, and RANSON score were potential predictors for AP organ failure, and IL6 (), IL8 (), and CD19+B lymphocytes () were independent predictors according to further multivariate analysis. In addition, a preoperative scoring system (0-11 points) was constructed to predict the organ failure of AP using these three factors. The AUC of the new score system was 0.86. The optimal cut-off value of the new scoring system was 6 points. Conclusions. Our prediction model (based on IL6, IL8, and CD19+ B Lymphocyte) has satisfactory working efficiency to identify AP patients with high risk of organ failure.

中文翻译：

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开发用于预测急性胰腺炎器官衰竭的炎症相关因子模型：一项回顾性队列研究

在先前的临床研究中，已经报道了几种炎症相关因素 (IRF) 可预测急性胰腺炎 (AP) 的器官衰竭。然而，这些模型存在一些缺点。本研究的目的是开发一种基于 IRF 的新预测模型，该模型可以准确识别 AP 器官衰竭的风险。方法. 回顾性纳入 100 例患者及其临床信息和 IRF 数据（10 种细胞因子水平、不同免疫细胞百分比和白细胞计数数据），最终选择 94 例患者进行进一步分析。应用单因素和多因素分析评估AP器官衰竭的潜在危险因素。评估相关模型的ROC曲线下面积（AUCs）、敏感性和特异性，以评估IRFs的预测能力。基于多元逻辑回归模型的回归系数，创建了一种预测AP器官衰竭的新评分系统。结果. 在我们的推导队列中，AP 患者的 OF 发生率接近 16% (15/94)。单变量分析数据显示，IL6、IL8、IL10、MCP1、CD3+ CD4+ T 淋巴细胞、CD19+ B 淋巴细胞、PCT、APACHE II 评分和 RANSON 评分是 AP 器官衰竭的潜在预测因子，而 IL6（), IL8 ()和 CD19+B 淋巴细胞 ()是根据进一步的多变量分析的独立预测因子。此外，利用这三个因素构建了术前评分系统（0-11分）来预测AP的器官衰竭。新评分系统的 AUC 为 0.86。新评分系统的最佳分界值为 6 分。结论。我们的预测模型（基于 IL6、IL8 和 CD19+ B 淋巴细胞）在识别具有高器官衰竭风险的 AP 患者方面具有令人满意的工作效率。