This study examines how legal and illegal firearm availability correspond to subsequent rates of firearm and non-firearm homicide in 226 U.S. cities from 2010 through 2017. We also assess how city-level economic disadvantage conditions this relationship. Results show that greater availability of illegal guns corresponds to future rates of firearm homicide while the rate of legal firearms dealers does not significantly influence firearm homicide. The association between firearm availability and homicide is conditional upon level of structural economic disadvantage. Our findings support efforts to decrease access to illegal firearms to reduce gun violence, especially among vulnerable and disadvantaged communities.

本研究调查了 2010 年至 2017 年美国 226 个城市的合法和非法枪支供应与随后的枪支和非枪支凶杀率之间的对应关系。我们还评估了城市层面的经济劣势如何影响这种关系。结果表明，非法枪支的更多可用性对应于未来的枪支凶杀率，而合法枪支经销商的比率不会显着影响枪支凶杀案。枪支供应与凶杀之间的关联取决于结构性经济劣势的程度。我们的研究结果支持努力减少非法枪支的获取以减少枪支暴力，特别是在弱势和弱势社区中。