Increasing levels of dissolved organic carbon (DOC) have been detected in the last decades in water bodies of the Northern hemisphere, and climate change might fuel this rise. For drinking water reservoirs located in peatland catchments, already subjected to elevated amounts of DOC that needs to be removed, this might pose a further problem. Scotland is predicted to face warmer temperatures and a change in rainfall patterns, which will result in more frequent and severe summer droughts and in heavier winter precipitation. These conditions are not ideal for peatlands, which may undergo a drastic reduction in area. Using two bioclimatic envelope models (Blanket bog Tree model and Lindsay Modified model) that project blanket bog distribution in Scotland in the 2050s, we extracted the area of blanket bog that is at risk of loss. Assuming that part of the carbon stored in this area is likely to be lost, we calculated how much of it could be added to DOC in catchments that contain public drinking water reservoirs each year. This analysis is a first estimate of the risk for the provision of drinking water from peatlands in Scotland due to climate change. The aim is to identify the catchments that may face the highest consequences of future climates in terms of the concentration of DOC ([DOC]), where more sophisticated water treatments might be needed. Our results show a great variability among the catchments, with only a few being unaffected by this problem, whereas others could experience substantial seasonal increase in [DOC]. This highlights the necessity to frequently monitor DOC levels in the reservoirs located in catchments where the major problems could arise, and to take the necessary measures to reduce it. Given that peatland condition and vegetation cover play a fundamental role in influencing DOC losses, this study also offers an indication of where peatland restoration might be useful to counteract the projected DOC increase and bring the highest benefits in terms of safe drinking water provision.

在过去的几十年里，北半球水体中检测到的溶解有机碳 (DOC) 水平不断增加，而气候变化可能会助长这种上升。对于位于泥炭地集水区的饮用水水库，已经遭受了大量需要去除的 DOC，这可能会带来进一步的问题。预计苏格兰将面临更暖的气温和降雨模式的变化，这将导致更频繁和更严重的夏季干旱以及更重的冬季降水。这些条件对于泥炭地来说并不理想，泥炭地的面积可能会急剧减少。我们使用两个生物气候包络模型（Blanket bog Tree 模型和 Lindsay Modified 模型）来预测 2050 年代苏格兰的毯状沼泽分布，我们提取了有损失风险的毯状沼泽区域。假设该地区储存的部分碳可能会流失，我们计算了每年可以将多少碳添加到包含公共饮用水水库的集水区的 DOC。该分析是对气候变化导致苏格兰泥炭地饮用水供应风险的首次评估。目的是确定在 DOC ([DOC]) 浓度方面可能面临未来气候最严重后果的集水区，其中可能需要更复杂的水处理。我们的结果显示流域之间存在很大差异，只有少数流域不受此问题的影响，而其他流域可能会经历 [DOC] 的显着季节性增加。这凸显了经常监测位于可能出现主要问题的集水区的水库中 DOC 水平的必要性，并采取必要的措施来减少它。鉴于泥炭地条件和植被覆盖在影响 DOC 损失方面发挥着重要作用，本研究还表明泥炭地恢复可能有助于抵消预计的 DOC 增加并在安全饮用水供应方面带来最大收益。