West Nile virus (WNV) is a globally distributed mosquito-borne virus of great public health concern. The number of WNV human cases and mosquito infection patterns vary in space and time. Many statistical models have been developed to understand and predict WNV geographic and temporal dynamics. However, these modeling efforts have been disjointed with little model comparison and inconsistent validation. In this paper, we describe a framework to unify and standardize WNV modeling efforts nationwide. WNV risk, detection, or warning models for this review were solicited from active research groups working in different regions of the United States. A total of 13 models were selected and described. The spatial and temporal scales of each model were compared to guide the timing and the locations for mosquito and virus surveillance, to support mosquito vector control decisions, and to assist in conducting public health outreach campaigns at multiple scales of decision-making. Our overarching goal is to bridge the existing gap between model development, which is usually conducted as an academic exercise, and practical model applications, which occur at state, tribal, local, or territorial public health and mosquito control agency levels. The proposed model assessment and comparison framework helps clarify the value of individual models for decision-making and identifies the appropriate temporal and spatial scope of each model. This qualitative evaluation clearly identifies gaps in linking models to applied decisions and sets the stage for a quantitative comparison of models. Specifically, whereas many coarse-grained models (county resolution or greater) have been developed, the greatest need is for fine-grained, short-term planning models (m-km, days-weeks) that remain scarce. We further recommend quantifying the value of information for each decision to identify decisions that would benefit most from model input.

中文翻译：

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西尼罗河病毒模型的开发和定性评估及其在当地公共卫生决策中的应用的拟议框架。

西尼罗河病毒 (WNV) 是一种全球分布的蚊媒病毒，引起了极大的公共卫生关注。WNV 人类病例的数量和蚊子感染模式在空间和时间上有所不同。已经开发了许多统计模型来理解和预测 WNV 的地理和时间动态。然而，这些建模工作与很少的模型比较和不一致的验证脱节。在本文中，我们描述了一个统一和标准化全国 WNV 建模工作的框架。本次审查的 WNV 风险、检测或警告模型是从在美国不同地区工作的活跃研究小组征集的。共选择和描述了 13 个模型。比较每个模型的空间和时间尺度，以指导蚊子和病毒监测的时间和地点，支持蚊媒控制决策，并协助在多个决策层面开展公共卫生外展活动。我们的首要目标是弥合模型开发（通常作为学术活动进行）与实际模型应用（发生在州、部落、地方或地区公共卫生和蚊虫控制机构层面）之间的现有差距。拟议的模型评估和比较框架有助于阐明单个模型对决策的价值，并确定每个模型的适当时间和空间范围。这种定性评估清楚地确定了将模型与应用决策联系起来的差距，并为模型的定量比较奠定了基础。具体来说，尽管已经开发了许多粗粒度模型（县分辨率或更高），最需要的是仍然稀缺的细粒度、短期规划模型（米-公里、天-周）。我们进一步建议量化每个决策的信息价值，以确定最能从模型输入中受益的决策。