Member States have published National Energy and Climate Plans with challenging variable renewable electricity (VRE) targets. As VRE has a high peak to average output, the Single Electricity Market of the island of Ireland (SEM) will need to consider how best to balance the lost value of curtailment against the extra costs of higher Simultaneous Non-Synchronous Penetration (SNSP), more interconnector capacity and/or more storage. The paper develops a spreadsheet model to explore these options for the 2026 VRE targets in the SEM and her neighbours. Raising SNSP from 75 % to 85 % reduces curtailment from 13.3 % to 8.0 %, saving 1338 GWh/yr of spilled wind. Adding the Celtic Link of 700 MW at SNSP of 75 % reduces curtailment to 12.4 % and saves 235 GWh. Adding 100 MW of batteries saves 19 GWh/yr, but the costs of delivering these savings are high. The marginal spilled wind can be four times the average, creating a potentially significant market distortion and reducing the value of adding further VRE.

成员国已经发布了具有挑战性的可变可再生电力 (VRE) 目标的国家能源和气候计划。由于 VRE 具有较高的峰值平均输出，爱尔兰岛单一电力市场 (SEM) 将需要考虑如何最好地平衡限电损失的价值与更高的同时非同步渗透 (SNSP) 的额外成本，更多互连器容量和/或更多存储。该论文开发了一个电子表格模型，以探索 SEM 及其邻居中 2026 年 VRE 目标的这些选项。将 SNSP 从 75 % 提高到 85 % 可将弃风率从 13.3 % 减少到 8.0 %，每年可节省 1338 GWh 的风电。在 SNSP 为 75% 的情况下添加 700 MW 的 Celtic Link 可将限电减少至 12.4% 并节省 235 GWh。添加 100 MW 的电池每年可节省 19 GWh，但实现这些节省的成本很高。