Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences, Ahead of Print.
Habitat loss, acid precipitation, and non-native species have drastically reduced the number of Adirondack waterbodies occupied by round whitefish (Prosopium cylindraceum). The goal of this study was to (1) increase the probability of reintroduction success by modeling the suitability of ponds for reintroduction and (2) better understand the effects of different rates of pond reclamation. We created a species distribution model that identified 70 waterbodies that were physically similar to occupied ponds. The most influential variables for describing round whitefish habitat included trophic, temperature, and alkalinity classes; waterbody maximum depth; maximum air temperature; and surrounding soil texture and impervious surface. Next, we simulated population dynamics under a variety of treatment scenarios and compared the probability of complete extirpation using a modified Markov model. Under almost all management strategies and under pressure from non-native competitors such as those observed in the past 30 years, the number of occupied ponds will decline over the next 100 years. Restoring one pond every 3 years, however, would result in a 99% chance of round whitefish persistence after 100 years.

中文翻译：

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在阿迪朗达克池塘中维持圆形白鱼（Prosopium cylindraceum）的栖息地适宜性建模和管理选择

加拿大渔业和水产科学杂志，提前印刷。
栖息地丧失、酸沉淀和非本地物种大大减少了圆形白鱼（Prosopium cylindraceum）占据的阿迪朗达克水体的数量。本研究的目标是 (1) 通过模拟池塘重新引入的适宜性来增加重新引入成功的可能性，以及 (2) 更好地了解不同池塘复垦率的影响。我们创建了一个物种分布模型，该模型确定了 70 个物理上与占用池塘相似的水体。描述圆形白鱼栖息地的最有影响的变量包括营养、温度和碱度等级；水体最大深度；最高气温；以及周围的土壤质地和不透水表面。下一个，我们模拟了各种治疗方案下的种群动态，并使用改进的马尔可夫模型比较了完全灭绝的概率。在几乎所有管理策略和来自非本地竞争者（例如过去 30 年观察到的那些）的压力下，被占用的池塘数量将在未来 100 年下降。然而，每 3 年恢复一个池塘，100 年后有 99% 的机会长出圆形白鱼。