A method for risk analysis and building performance simulations is developed to optimise the building design process and fulfil the design criteria. The aim is to support the decision-makers during the building design process by including uncertainties from the design phase, quantifying the probability of attaining the energy performance criteria and financial requirements. The method is meant to be used as a comparative study of optional building designs based on different stakeholder values and consequence models to quantify the economic consequences of failing to comply with energy requirements. A case study using single-family houses demonstrated the various applications of the method using two design options as examples for quantifying the probability of failure and the probability of a design option being more financially viable than the other. The energy performance was simulated based on fifteen stochastic parameters, and the cost evaluation was simulated using six stochastic parameters from three stakeholders with different values and two different consequence models. The results showed a difference between stakeholders in the case study; the cheaper option was more suitable for the property developer while the more expensive option was a better choice for the private building owner if a longer lifecycle was expected.

开发了一种风险分析和建筑性能模拟方法，以优化建筑设计过程并满足设计标准。目的是在建筑设计过程中支持决策者，包括设计阶段的不确定性，量化达到能源性能标准和财务要求的可能性。该方法旨在用作基于不同利益相关者价值观和后果模型的可选建筑设计的比较研究，以量化未能遵守能源要求的经济后果。使用单户住宅的案例研究展示了该方法的各种应用，使用两个设计选项作为量化失败概率的示例，以及一个设计选项在财务上比另一个更可行的概率。能源绩效基于 15 个随机参数进行模拟，成本评估使用来自三个不同价值的三个利益相关者的 6 个随机参数和两个不同的后果模型进行模拟。结果表明，案例研究中的利益相关者之间存在差异；更便宜的选择更适合房地产开发商，而如果期望更长的生命周期，更昂贵的选择对于私人建筑业主来说是更好的选择。并且使用来自三个利益相关者的六个随机参数来模拟成本评估，这些参数具有不同的价值和两个不同的后果模型。结果表明，案例研究中的利益相关者之间存在差异；更便宜的选择更适合房地产开发商，而如果期望更长的生命周期，更昂贵的选择对于私人建筑业主来说是更好的选择。并且使用来自三个利益相关者的六个随机参数来模拟成本评估，这些参数具有不同的价值和两个不同的后果模型。结果表明，案例研究中的利益相关者之间存在差异；更便宜的选择更适合房地产开发商，而如果期望更长的生命周期，更昂贵的选择对于私人建筑业主来说是更好的选择。