Do voters reward politicians for trade liberalization? We examine this question by analyzing voter responses in South Korea to the US-Korea Trade Agreement. Exploiting a change in party positions on the FTA over time, we examine the effects of different party positions on outcomes in the legislative and presidential elections. We find that voters who expect direct gains (losses) specifically from the treaty increase (decrease) support for the pro-trade party. However, voters in export-oriented industries do not reward politicians for a free trade agreement that does not directly affect their well-being. Our analysis of seven waves of individual-level panel survey data also demonstrates that a short-term change in a candidate’s position on the FTA influences voter decisions in the upcoming presidential election. The findings suggest that voter preferences with regard to trade can materialize into voting behavior when voters have a clear ex ante expectation of specific gains or losses from the trade policy.

选民会奖励政治家的贸易自由化吗？我们通过分析韩国选民对美韩贸易协定的反应来研究这个问题。我们利用政党在自由贸易协定上的立场随时间的变化，研究了不同政党立场对立法和总统选举结果的影响。我们发现，特别期望从条约中获得直接收益（损失）的选民会增加（减少）对亲贸易党的支持。然而，出口导向型行业的选民不会因为一项不会直接影响他们福祉的自由贸易协定而奖励政客。我们对七波个人层面小组调查数据的分析还表明，候选人在自由贸易协定中的立场的短期变化会影响即将到来的总统选举中的选民决定。对贸易政策特定收益或损失的事前预期。