1. Climate change is causing shifts in the distribution patterns of freshwater fish at various spatio-temporal scales. Tropical freshwater fish are vulnerable, especially in areas where a high impact of climate change is predicted; thus, there is an increasing need to predict these shifts to determine conservation and adaptation strategies.
2. Ecological niche models offer a reliable way to predict the effects of climate change on species distribution. Potential shifts in the distribution of tropical fish were tested under two scenarios (4.5 – moderate and 8.5 – extreme) with three general circulation models for years 2050 and 2070 using maximum entropy software using as models two predatory species – the tropical gar Atractosteus tropicus and the giant cichlid Petenia splendida.
3. The potential distribution of both species was associated with warm and humid–sub-humid conditions. Future projections showed a higher availability of suitable areas for both species resulting from the expansion of warmer conditions in the middle and upper basins of the Central American mountain range and centre of the Yucatan Peninsula.
4. Ecological niche models of keystone or umbrella species such as A. tropicus and P. splendida could be useful to support conservation plans of protected areas. The potential distribution of both species covers areas of high suitability including six important biosphere reserves in Mexico, three protected areas in Guatemala and part of the Mesoamerican biological corridor.
5. Despite the potential expansion of the present distribution range suggested by the models, it is important to consider the biological and ecological requirements of the species and the ecological implications of these potential shifts in distribution. Both scenarios could have several implications at genetic, population, and ecosystem levels.

中文翻译：

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模拟气候变化情景下两种热带淡水鱼类的潜在分布

1. 气候变化正在导致淡水鱼在不同时空尺度上的分布格局发生变化。热带淡水鱼很脆弱，特别是在预计气候变化影响较大的地区；因此，越来越需要预测这些变化，以确定保护和适应战略。
2. 生态位模型提供了一种可靠的方法来预测气候变化对物种分布的影响。热带鱼分布的潜在变化在 2050 年和 2070 年的三个大环流模型下在两种情景（4.5 - 中等和 8.5 - 极端）下使用最大熵软件进行了测试，使用两种捕食性物种 - 热带 gar Atractosteus tropicus和巨型慈鲷Petenia splendida。
3. 这两个物种的潜在分布与温暖和潮湿-半湿润条件有关。未来的预测表明，由于中美洲山脉中部和上部盆地和尤卡坦半岛中部的温暖条件扩大，这两种物种的适宜区域的可用性更高。
4. 关键物种或伞形物种（如A. tropicus和P. splendida）的生态位模型可用于支持保护区的保护计划。这两个物种的潜在分布覆盖了高度适宜的区域，包括墨西哥的六个重要生物圈保护区、危地马拉的三个保护区和中美洲生物走廊的一部分。
5. 尽管模型建议当前分布范围可能扩大，但重要的是要考虑物种的生物和生态要求以及这些潜在分布变化的生态影响。这两种情况都可能在遗传、人口和生态系统层面产生若干影响。