Fluid injection into a rock mass from industrial processes can cause perceivable seismic events that may raise public concern. This seismicity can be caused by injection-induced fluid pressure in the rock mass causing slip on faults. Here we provide a method to distinguish between aseismic and seismic mobilisation and to predict fault movement due to anthropogenic fluid injection. This was achieved by extending a two-dimensional fully coupled fluid and mechanical loading extended finite element model (X-FEM) via development of a dynamic analysis module as a standalone code in Matlab. This code considers fluid flow along the fault as well as into the rock mass and uses a directly proportional equivalent injected flow rate into the fault as the input. This model was validated by comparing the resultant pressure and normal and shear displacements calculated at the centre of the fault against observations from a decametre-scale in-situ experiment. The main results were that not only the mechanics of the fault could be simulated using this approach, but that the simulation correctly predicted the onset of seismicity and transition to dynamic analysis and at similar seismic magnitudes to observations. Parametric studies investigated the influence of the flow rate (when injecting a constant volume of water) and the effect of rate and state frictional parameters in representing modes of seismicity. The main conclusion is that this modelling technique using X-FEM provides an accurate method in accurately predicting modes, location and timing of fault remobilisation due to fluid injection inclusive of important precursory aseismic fault movements. These results are important, since they demonstrate the applicability of this X-FEM approach in accurately predicting the mechanics of fault reactivation and the resultant seismicity, aiding in the design and scheduling of fluid injection operations and in the optimisation of operational parameters.

从工业过程中注入岩体的流体会引起可感知的地震事件，这可能会引起公众的关注。这种地震活动可能是由岩体中注入引起的流体压力导致断层滑动引起的。在这里，我们提供了一种区分抗震和地震活动并预测由于人为流体注入引起的断层运动的方法。这是通过在Matlab中将动态分析模块开发为独立代码来扩展二维完全耦合的流体和机械加载扩展有限元模型 (X-FEM) 来实现的. 该代码考虑了沿断层以及进入岩体的流体流动，并使用进入断层的成正比等效注入流量作为输入。通过将断层中心计算的合成压力以及法向和剪切位移与十米尺度现场实验的观察结果进行比较，验证了该模型。主要结果是，不仅可以使用这种方法模拟断层的力学，而且模拟正确地预测了地震活动的开始和向动态分析的转变，以及与观测相似的地震震级。参数研究调查了流速（注入恒定体积的水时）的影响以及速率和状态摩擦参数在表示地震活动模式方面的影响。由于包括重要的前兆地震断层运动在内的流体注入而导致的再活动。这些结果很重要，因为它们证明了这种 X-FEM 方法在准确预测断层再激活机制和由此产生的地震活动中的适用性，有助于流体注入操作的设计和调度以及操作参数的优化。