Taxes and subsidies on foods and nutrients have the potential to promote healthier diets and thereby reduce mortality. In this study, we examine the effects of such policy instruments on Swedish public health. Specifically, we estimate the effects of food and nutrient taxes and subsidies on mortality averted and postponed in Sweden, using both demand system estimations and simulation models. We evaluate different Value Added Tax (VAT) reforms. The VAT is raised on food products that are particularly rich in saturated fat or salt and lowered on fruit and vegetables. Our models predict that an increase in the current VAT of 12% on food, to 25% VAT on products rich in saturated fat plus a 0% VAT on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 1100 deaths (95% CI: −832; −1363) averted or postponed in a year in Sweden, while the combination of a 34.4% VAT on products rich in saturated fat and a −10.4% VAT (i.e. a subsidy) on fruits and vegetables would result in almost 2100 (95% CI: −1572; −2311) deaths averted or postponed corresponding to a 4.8% reduction in diet-related annual death. Most of the deaths averted or delayed from this reform would be deaths from coronary heart disease (−1,148, 95% CI: −728; −1586), followed by stroke −641 (95% CI: −408; −887) and diet-related cancer deaths (−288, 95% CI: −11; −435). We find that health-related food taxes and subsidies improve dietary habits as well as reduce the mortality of the Swedish population. However, the effect of these reforms on different socioeconomic classes and which reforms provide the best value for money, i.e., cost-effectiveness of these reforms needs to be established first before implementation.

对食品和营养素征税和补贴有可能促进更健康的饮食，从而降低死亡率。在本研究中，我们研究了此类政策工具对瑞典公共卫生的影响。具体而言，我们使用需求系统估计和模拟模型来估计食品和营养税以及补贴对瑞典避免和推迟的死亡率的影响。我们评估了不同的增值税 (VAT) 改革。对富含饱和脂肪或盐分的食品提高增值税，降低对水果和蔬菜的增值税。我们的模型预测，将当前 12% 的食品增值税增加到富含饱和脂肪的产品的 25% 增值税加上水果和蔬菜的 0% 增值税将导致近 1100 人死亡（95% CI：-832；- 1363）在瑞典的一年内避免或推迟，而34的组合。对富含饱和脂肪的产品征收 4% 的增值税和对水果和蔬菜征收 -10.4% 的增值税（即补贴）将导致近 2100 人（95% CI：-1572；-2311）人死亡，相当于减少 4.8%在与饮食相关的年度死亡人数中。这项改革避免或延迟的大部分死亡将是死于冠心病（-1,148，95% CI：-728；-1586），其次是中风 -641（95% CI：-408；-887）和饮食- 相关癌症死亡（-288，95% CI：-11；-435）。我们发现与健康相关的食品税和补贴可以改善饮食习惯并降低瑞典人口的死亡率。然而，这些改革对不同社会经济阶层的影响以及哪些改革最物有所值，即这些改革的成本效益需要在实施前首先确定。