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An investigation of Jordan’s fertility stall and resumed decline: The role of proximate determinants (by Caroline Krafft, Elizabeth Kula, Maia Sieverding)
Demographic Research ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-27 , DOI: 10.4054/demres.2021.45.19 Caroline Krafft , Elizabeth Kula , Maia Sieverding
Demographic Research ( IF 2.1 ) Pub Date : 2021-08-27 , DOI: 10.4054/demres.2021.45.19 Caroline Krafft , Elizabeth Kula , Maia Sieverding
BACKGROUND
Fertility stalls have been observed in numerous African and Middle Eastern countries. From the late 1990s until 2011 the fertility transition in Jordan was stalled, with the total fertility rate (TFR) well above replacement level.
OBJECTIVE
This paper demonstrates a resumption of fertility decline in Jordan since 2012 and investigates the background and proximate determinants behind the decline.
METHODS
Fertility trends among Jordanians are analyzed using the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey (JLMPS) 2010 and 2016 waves and the Jordan Population and Family Health Survey (JPFHS) 2002 to 2017/2018 rounds. We estimate age-specific and total fertility rates over time and conduct a proximate-determinants decomposition. We also examine the evolution of fertility by age, education, and parity, testing for meaningful changes over time in a multivariate framework.
RESULTS
Fertility among Jordanians declined from a TFR of 3.8 in 2009/2010 to 3.3 in JLMPS 2016 and 2.6 in JPFHS 2017/2018. Vital statistics data are more consistent with the JLMPS estimate. Declines in fertility occurred across age groups and education levels and have parity-specific components. The proximate-determinants decomposition does not identify a clear driver of resumed fertility decline. Age at marriage increased steadily but slowly over time, yet contraceptive use among currently married women declined over time. The ideal number of children decreased less than observed fertility.
中文翻译：
对约旦生育停滞和恢复衰退的调查：直接决定因素的作用（作者：Caroline Krafft、Elizabeth Kula、Maia Sieverding）
背景技术
在许多非洲和中东国家已经观察到生育停滞。从 1990 年代后期到 2011 年，约旦的生育率转型停滞不前，总生育率 (TFR) 远高于更替水平。
目标
本文展示了约旦自 2012 年以来生育率下降的恢复，并调查了下降背后的背景和直接决定因素。
方法
使用约旦劳动力市场小组调查 (JLMPS) 2010 年和 2016 年波和约旦人口和家庭健康调查 (JPFHS) 2002 年至 2017/2018 年轮次分析约旦人的生育趋势。我们随着时间的推移估计特定年龄和总生育率，并进行近似决定因素分解。我们还研究了按年龄、教育程度和胎次划分的生育率演变，并在多变量框架中测试了随着时间的推移发生的有意义的变化。
结果
约旦人的生育率从 2009/2010 年的 3.8 下降到 JLMPS 2016 的 3.3 和 JPFHS 2017/2018 的 2.6。生命统计数据与 JLMPS 估计更一致。生育率下降发生在不同年龄组和教育水平，并具有特定于胎次的组成部分。近似决定因素分解并未确定生育率恢复下降的明确驱动因素。结婚年龄随着时间的推移稳步但缓慢地增加，但目前已婚妇女的避孕措施使用率随着时间的推移而下降。理想的儿童数量下降少于观察到的生育率。
更新日期：2021-09-09
Fertility stalls have been observed in numerous African and Middle Eastern countries. From the late 1990s until 2011 the fertility transition in Jordan was stalled, with the total fertility rate (TFR) well above replacement level.
OBJECTIVE
This paper demonstrates a resumption of fertility decline in Jordan since 2012 and investigates the background and proximate determinants behind the decline.
METHODS
Fertility trends among Jordanians are analyzed using the Jordan Labor Market Panel Survey (JLMPS) 2010 and 2016 waves and the Jordan Population and Family Health Survey (JPFHS) 2002 to 2017/2018 rounds. We estimate age-specific and total fertility rates over time and conduct a proximate-determinants decomposition. We also examine the evolution of fertility by age, education, and parity, testing for meaningful changes over time in a multivariate framework.
RESULTS
Fertility among Jordanians declined from a TFR of 3.8 in 2009/2010 to 3.3 in JLMPS 2016 and 2.6 in JPFHS 2017/2018. Vital statistics data are more consistent with the JLMPS estimate. Declines in fertility occurred across age groups and education levels and have parity-specific components. The proximate-determinants decomposition does not identify a clear driver of resumed fertility decline. Age at marriage increased steadily but slowly over time, yet contraceptive use among currently married women declined over time. The ideal number of children decreased less than observed fertility.
中文翻译：
对约旦生育停滞和恢复衰退的调查：直接决定因素的作用（作者：Caroline Krafft、Elizabeth Kula、Maia Sieverding）
背景技术
在许多非洲和中东国家已经观察到生育停滞。从 1990 年代后期到 2011 年，约旦的生育率转型停滞不前，总生育率 (TFR) 远高于更替水平。
目标
本文展示了约旦自 2012 年以来生育率下降的恢复，并调查了下降背后的背景和直接决定因素。
方法
使用约旦劳动力市场小组调查 (JLMPS) 2010 年和 2016 年波和约旦人口和家庭健康调查 (JPFHS) 2002 年至 2017/2018 年轮次分析约旦人的生育趋势。我们随着时间的推移估计特定年龄和总生育率，并进行近似决定因素分解。我们还研究了按年龄、教育程度和胎次划分的生育率演变，并在多变量框架中测试了随着时间的推移发生的有意义的变化。
结果
约旦人的生育率从 2009/2010 年的 3.8 下降到 JLMPS 2016 的 3.3 和 JPFHS 2017/2018 的 2.6。生命统计数据与 JLMPS 估计更一致。生育率下降发生在不同年龄组和教育水平，并具有特定于胎次的组成部分。近似决定因素分解并未确定生育率恢复下降的明确驱动因素。结婚年龄随着时间的推移稳步但缓慢地增加，但目前已婚妇女的避孕措施使用率随着时间的推移而下降。理想的儿童数量下降少于观察到的生育率。
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