The origin of idiopathic environmental intolerances (IEIs) is an open question. According to the psychological approaches, various top-down factors play a dominant role in the development of IEIs. The general psychopathology model assumes a propensity towards mental ill-health (negative affectivity) increases the probability of developing IEIs. The attribution model emphasizes the importance of mistaken attribution of experienced somatic symptoms; thus, more symptoms should lead to more IEIs. Finally, the nocebo model highlights the role of expectations in the development of IEIs. In this case, worries about the harmful effects of environmental factors are assumed to evoke IEIs.

We estimated cross-lagged panel models with latent variables based on longitudinal data obtained at two time points (six years apart) from a large near-representative community sample to test the hypothesized associations. Indicators of chemical intolerance, electromagnetic hypersensitivity, and sound sensitivity fit well under a common latent factor of IEIs. This factor, in turn, showed considerable temporal stability. However, whereas a positive association was found between IEIs and increased somatic symptoms and modern health worries six years later, the changes therein could not be predicted as hypothesized by the three psychological models. We discuss the implications of these results, as well as methodological aspects in the measurement and prediction of change in IEIs.

特发性环境不耐受（IEI）的起源是一个悬而未决的问题。根据心理学方法，各种自上而下的因素在 IEI 的发展中起主导作用。一般的精神病理学模型假设对精神疾病（负面情感）的倾向会增加发展 IEI 的可能性。归因模型强调错误归因经验的躯体症状的重要性；因此，更多的症状应该导致更多的 IEI。最后，nocebo 模型强调了期望在 IEI 发展中的作用。在这种情况下，假设对环境因素有害影响的担忧会引发 IEI。

我们根据在两个时间点（相隔六年）从一个大型近乎代表性的社区样本中获得的纵向数据估计了具有潜在变量的交叉滞后面板模型，以测试假设的关联。化学不耐受、电磁超敏反应和声音敏感度指标非常适合 IEI 的常见潜在因素。反过来，这个因素显示出相当大的时间稳定性。然而，虽然在 6 年后发现 IEI 与增加的躯体症状和现代健康担忧之间存在正相关，但其中的变化无法像三种心理模型所假设的那样预测。我们讨论了这些结果的含义，以及测量和预测 IEI 变化的方法学方面。