Wildfire occurrence is expected to increase in future climate and Land Use Land Cover (LULC) change scenarios, especially in vulnerable areas as the European Mediterranean Basin. In this study future probability of wildfire occurrence was estimated for a 20-year time period (2041–2060, centered on 2050) by applying a statistically-based regression model using LULC-derived contact areas with the forest cover (interfaces) as proxy for the human-related factor and a combination of Live Fuel Moisture Content and seasonal climate-related variables as predictors. Future wildfire occurrence was mapped under RCP 8.5 high emissions scenario in four Spanish regions with heterogeneous socioeconomic, LULC and natural fire-related characteristics at 1 km² target spatial resolution. Results showed increased wildfire probability in ∼19–73% of 1 km² cells, observing regional differences in the variable effects. This approach could be applied to other spatial scales offering tools for planning and management actions and to obtain different possible future scenarios.

在未来的气候和土地利用土地覆盖 (LULC) 变化情景中，野火的发生预计会增加，特别是在欧洲地中海盆地等脆弱地区。在这项研究中，通过应用基于统计的回归模型，使用 LULC 衍生的接触面积与森林覆盖（界面）作为代表，估计了 20 年时间段（2041-2060，以 2050 年为中心）未来发生野火的概率人类相关因素以及燃料中水分含量和季节性气候相关变量的组合作为预测因子。根据RCP 8.5 高排放情景绘制了西班牙4 个具有异质社会经济、LULC 和自然火灾相关特征的1 km ²地区未来野火发生的地图目标空间分辨率 结果表明，在 1km ²小区中，大约 19-73% 的野火概率增加，观察到变量效应的区域差异。这种方法可以应用于其他空间尺度，为规划和管理行动提供工具，并获得不同的未来可能情景。