We have each spent more than 50 years doing research that has had little impact. Even more lamentable is that our field, judgment and decision making (JDM), has on the whole had little impact during that span. We attribute that failure to the use of methodologies that emphasize testing models rather than looking for differences in behavior. The “cognitive revolution” led the field astray, toward the goal of studying model fit rather than comparing observable results. With modeling as the goal, experimentation was stultified. Simple tasks became dominant. Although a poor metaphor for real decision making, the gambling paradigm has lasted forever because the inputs to the decision are known to the researcher and thus easily modeled.

我们每个人都花费了 50 多年的时间进行影响不大的研究。更可悲的是，我们的领域，判断和决策（JDM），在这期间总体上几乎没有影响。我们将这种失败归因于使用强调测试模型而不是寻找行为差异的方法。“认知革命”导致该领域误入歧途，朝着研究模型拟合而不是比较可观察结果的目标前进。以建模为目标，实验变得乏味。简单的任务成为主导。尽管对真正的决策制定的比喻很糟糕，但赌博范式一直持续下去，因为研究人员知道决策的输入，因此很容易建模。