Firms invest heavily in their future use of digital technology to create and appropriate value and thereby survive and prosper. Such decisions regarding the future are part of a firm's foresight, which is a core element of a firm's dynamic capabilities. The contemporary toolbox for generating foresight is dominated by procedural methods, thus ignoring theory-based predictions of the future uses of digital technology. This paper presents the first empirical assessment of business model theory's ability to predict the future uses of digital technology by a given firm. Predictions for a specific niche of hemophilia firms are investigated. Outcomes related to these predictions are then observed. The results show the power of business model theory for deriving such predictions, implying that the managerial toolbox for foresight generation should be extended to include this theory. This study also provides several directions for further development of business model theory to increase its ability to account for value creation and appropriation from the use of digital technology.

公司在未来使用数字技术来创造和分配价值方面进行了大量投资，从而生存和繁荣。这种关于未来的决策是公司远见的一部分，是公司动态能力的核心要素。当代生成远见的工具箱主要由程序方法主导，因此忽略了对数字技术未来使用的基于理论的预测。本文首次对商业模式理论预测特定公司未来数字技术使用的能力进行了实证评估。研究了对特定血友病公司利基市场的预测。然后观察与这些预测相关的结果。结果显示了商业模型理论在得出此类预测方面的力量，这意味着应扩展用于远见生成的管理工具箱以包含该理论。本研究还为商业模式理论的进一步发展提供了几个方向，以提高其通过使用数字技术来解释价值创造和挪用的能力。