Research often suggests that population ageing will be detrimental for the economy due to increased labour market exits and lost productivity, however the role of population health and disability at older ages is not well established. We estimate the relationship between the size of the older working age population and economic growth across 180 countries from 1990 to 2017 to explore whether a healthy older working age population, as measured by age-specific Years Lived with Disability (YLDs), can moderate the relationship between an ageing labour force and real per capita GDP growth. Using country and year fixed effects models, we find that although an increase in the 55–69 year old share of the total population is associated with a reduction in real per capita GDP growth, the decline in economic growth is moderated if the population at that age is in good health. To demonstrate the magnitude of effects, we present model predicted real per capita GDP growth for a selection of countries from 2020 through 2100 comparing the 2017 country-specific baseline YLD rate to a simulated 5% improvement in YLDs. Our findings demonstrate that economic slowdowns attributable to population ageing are avoidable through policy interventions supporting healthy and active ageing.

研究经常表明，由于劳动力市场退出率增加和生产力下降，人口老龄化将对经济造成不利影响，但人口健康和老年人残疾的作用尚未得到充分证实。我们估计了 1990 年至 2017 年 180 个国家的老年工作年龄人口规模与经济增长之间的关系，以探讨健康的老年工作年龄人口（以特定年龄段的残障年数（YLD）衡量）是否可以缓和劳动力老龄化与实际人均 GDP 增长之间的关系。使用国家和年份固定效应模型，我们发现虽然 55-69 岁人口占总人口比例的增加与实际人均 GDP 增长的下降有关，如果该年龄段的人口身体健康，经济增长的下降就会有所缓和。为了证明影响的大小，我们提出模型预测 2020 年至 2100 年选定国家的实际人均 GDP 增长，并将 2017 年特定国家/地区的基线 YLD 率与模拟的 5% 的 YLD 改善进行比较。我们的研究结果表明，通过支持健康和积极老龄化的政策干预措施，可以避免人口老龄化导致的经济放缓。