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Evaluating targeted heuristics for vulnerability assessment in flood impact model chains
Journal of Flood Risk Management ( IF 3.0 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-07 , DOI: 10.1111/jfr3.12736
Andreas Paul Zischg 1, 2 , Veronika Röthlisberger 1, 2 , Markus Mosimann 1, 2 , Rahel Profico‐Kaltenrieder 1 , David Bresch 3, 4 , Sven Fuchs 5 , Martina Kauzlaric 1, 2 , Margreth Keiler 6, 7
Affiliation  

In flood risk management, the choice of vulnerability functions has a remarkable impact on the overall uncertainty of modelling flood damage. The spatial transferability of empirical vulnerability functions is limited, leading to the need for computation and validation of region-specific vulnerability functions. In data-scarce regions however, this option is not feasible. In contrast, the physical processes of flood impact model chains can be developed in these regions because of the availability of global datasets. Here we evaluated the implementation of a synthetic vulnerability function into a flood impact model. The function bases on expert heuristics on a targeted sample of representative buildings (targeted heuristics). We applied the vulnerability function in a meso-scale river basin and evaluated the new function by comparing the resulting flood damage with the damage computed by other approaches, (1) an ensemble of vulnerability functions available from the literature, (2) an individual vulnerability function calibrated with region-specific data, and (3) the vulnerability function used in flood risk management by the Swiss government. The results show that targeted heuristics can be a valuable alternative for developing flood impact models in regions without any data or only few data on flood damage.

中文翻译:

评估洪水影响模型链中脆弱性评估的针对性启发式方法

在洪水风险管理中,脆弱性函数的选择对洪水损害建模的整体不确定性有显着影响。经验脆弱性函数的空间可转移性是有限的,导致需要计算和验证特定区域的脆弱性函数。然而,在数据稀缺的地区,这种选择是不可行的。相比之下,由于全球数据集的可用性,可以在这些地区开发洪水影响模型链的物理过程。在这里,我们评估了综合脆弱性函数在洪水影响模型中的实施。该功能基于对代表性建筑物的目标样本的专家启发式(目标启发式)。我们在中尺度河流流域中应用了脆弱性函数,并通过将由此产生的洪水损害与其他方法计算出的损害进行比较来评估新函数,(1) 文献中可用的脆弱性函数集合,(2) 单个脆弱性使用特定区域数据校准的函数,以及 (3) 瑞士政府在洪水风险管理中使用的脆弱性函数。结果表明,在没有任何数据或只有很少的洪水破坏数据的地区,有针对性的启发式方法可以成为开发洪水影响模型的有价值的替代方法。(3) 瑞士政府在洪水风险管理中使用的脆弱性函数。结果表明,在没有任何数据或只有很少的洪水破坏数据的地区,有针对性的启发式方法可以成为开发洪水影响模型的有价值的替代方法。(3) 瑞士政府在洪水风险管理中使用的脆弱性函数。结果表明,在没有任何数据或只有很少的洪水破坏数据的地区,有针对性的启发式方法可以成为开发洪水影响模型的有价值的替代方法。
更新日期:2021-11-11
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