We develop a quantitative macroeconomic theory of input-saving technical change to analyze how markets economize on scarce natural resources, with an application to fossil fuel. We find that aggregate US data call for a very low short-run substitution elasticity between energy and the capital/labor inputs. Our estimates imply that energy-saving technical change took off when the oil shocks hit in the 1970s. This response implies significant substitutability with the other inputs in the long run: even under ever-rising energy prices, long-run consumption growth is still possible, along with a modest factor share of energy.

中文翻译：

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作为对自然资源稀缺的回应的定向技术变革

我们开发了一种节约投入的技术变革的定量宏观经济理论，以分析市场如何节约稀缺的自然资源，并将其应用于化石燃料。我们发现美国的总体数据要求能源和资本/劳动力投入之间的短期替代弹性非常低。我们的估计表明，当 1970 年代石油危机袭来时，节能技术变革开始了。从长远来看，这种反应意味着与其他投入的显着替代性：即使在能源价格不断上涨的情况下，长期消费增长仍然是可能的，同时能源要素份额适度。