ABSTRACT

Foreign interventions are generally considered as game changers in civil wars. Yet the extant literature on this topic typically focuses on a single type of intervention, neglecting the effect of other intervention types deployed within the same conflict. Breaking with tradition, this article proposes a more extensive, multi-faceted bargaining model that integrates multiple types of interventions – military, economic, and diplomatic – that may be employed in a given conflict. The new framework analyzes how the interventions – either alone or in combination with others – shift the balance of power, often partly because interventions reveal previously private information regarding the true capacities of the warring parties. By including the asymmetrical aspects of civil wars in the framework, the article argues and finds support that although rebel-sided interventions usually produce their desired effect by enhancing the opposition’s military capacity, state-sided interventions tend to backfire and ultimately undermine the government.

摘要

外国干预通常被认为是内战中的游戏规则改变者。然而，关于该主题的现有文献通常侧重于单一类型的干预，而忽略了在同一冲突中部署的其他干预类型的影响。本文打破传统，提出了一种更广泛、多方面的谈判模式，该模式整合了多种类型的干预措施——军事、经济和外交——这些干预措施可能会在给定的冲突中使用。新框架分析了干预（单独或与其他干预一起）如何改变权力平衡，这通常部分是因为干预揭示了以前关于交战各方真实能力的私人信息。通过在框架中包括内战的不对称方面，