To understand the extent to which a policy instrument’s early adoption is crucial in crisis management, we leverage unique worldwide data that record the daily evolution of policy mandate adoptions and COVID-19 infection and mortality rates. The analysis shows that the mask mandate is consistently associated with lower infection rates in the short term, and its early adoption boosts the long-term efficacy. By contrast, the other five policy instruments—domestic lockdowns, international travel bans, mass gathering bans, and restaurant and school closures—show weaker efficacy. Governments prepared for a public health crisis with stronger resilience or capacity and those with stronger collectivist cultures were quicker to adopt nationwide mask mandates. From a policy design perspective, policymakers must avoid overreacting with less effective instruments and underreacting with more effective ones during uncertain times, especially when interventions differ in efficacy and cost.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 的政策设计：关于早期口罩指令和其他政策干预措施有效性的全球证据

为了了解政策工具的早期采用对危机管理的重要性，我们利用了独特的全球数据，这些数据记录了政策指令采用的每日演变以及 COVID-19 感染率和死亡率。分析显示，强制佩戴口罩始终与短期内较低的感染率相关，而早期采用可以提高长期疗效。相比之下，其他五项政策工具——国内封锁、国际旅行禁令、大规模集会禁令以及餐馆和学校关闭——显示出较弱的效果。那些为公共卫生危机做好准备、具有更强韧性或能力的政府，以及那些拥有更强集体主义文化的政府，会更快地在全国范围内实施口罩指令。从政策设计的角度来看，政策制定者必须避免在不确定时期对效率较低的工具反应过度，而对更有效的工具反应不足，特别是当干预措施的功效和成本不同时。