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Transport disrupted – Substituting public transport by bike or car under Covid 19
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice ( IF 6.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-09-07 , DOI: 10.1016/j.tra.2021.09.002
Kerstin J Schaefer 1 , Leonie Tuitjer 1 , Meike Levin-Keitel 2
Affiliation  

The Covid 19 pandemic has caused dramatic disruptions in the public transport sector that has seen a stark downturn in many cities across the globe, calling into question previous efforts to reduce air pollution and CO2 emissions by expanding this sector. Especially, the current surge of individual car use is worrying and the question remains which users might be able and willing to substitute public transport by cycling. This effect is interesting to study for the case of Hanover Region, because of the well-developed biking infrastructure that makes biking a viable alternative to individual car use. In this paper, we analyze survey data from June 2020 on the use of transportation modes before and during the pandemic in the Hanover Region. We ask if and how the over 4.000 participants substitute public transport and what characterizes those who chose biking over individual car use. We use multivariate regression models and find evidence that Stadtbahn (local light rail) and bus are substituted by bike, car and working from home, while train use is not significantly replaced by car and seems to be positively related to bike use. The data also shows that women have a higher level of fear of infection than men have during public transport use and therefore reduce public transport use more. Moreover, income displays a positive effect on increased car use while cycling is independent of socio-economic indicators but instead driven by the eco-consciousness of users. Surprisingly, we find that car use was increased in particular by residents of Hanover city, while it was decreased by residents of less densely populated urban areas in the region.



中文翻译:


交通中断——在 Covid 19 下用自行车或汽车替代公共交通



Covid 19 大流行对公共交通部门造成了严重破坏,全球许多城市的公共交通部门都出现了严重下滑,这让人们对之前通过扩大该部门来减少空气污染和二氧化碳排放的努力提出了质疑。尤其是,当前个人汽车使用量的激增令人担忧,而问题仍然是哪些用户能够并且愿意骑自行车替代公共交通。研究汉诺威地区的这种效应很有趣,因为发达的自行车基础设施使骑自行车成为个人汽车使用的可行替代方案。在本文中,我们分析了 2020 年 6 月汉诺威地区疫情爆发前和疫情期间交通方式使用情况的调查数据。我们询问 4000 多名参与者是否以及如何替代公共交通,以及那些选择骑自行车而不是私家车的人有何特点。我们使用多元回归模型,发现证据表明 Stadtbahn(当地轻轨)和公共汽车被自行车、汽车和在家工作所取代,而火车的使用并没有被汽车显着取代,并且似乎与自行车的使用呈正相关。数据还显示,女性在乘坐公共交通工具时比男性对感染的恐惧程度更高,因此更多地减少公共交通的使用。此外,收入对增加汽车使用量显示出积极影响,而骑自行车独立于社会经济指标,而是由用户的生态意识驱动。令人惊讶的是,我们发现汽车使用量有所增加,尤其是汉诺威市的居民,而该地区人口密度较低的城市地区的居民则减少了汽车使用量。

更新日期:2021-09-24
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