The lifetime of light-emitting diodes (LEDs) is highly dependent on usage conditions such as operating temperature and drive current. It is costly and impractical to test the LEDs on every usage condition. Previous studies used the Arrhenius equation and Black’s model to investigate the relationship of operating temperature, drive current and lumen maintenance life. However, they are found to be less accurate for certain conditions. The study aims to improve the prediction of lumen maintenance life under different thermal-electrical conditions. The Eyring model is proposed in this study. The model parameters are determined by regression approach, which provides the goodness of fit of the prediction model as well as the prediction interval. Furthermore, a method to predict lumen depreciation trend for different operating conditions based on the Eyring model and regression approach is established. As a result, the Eyring model produced higher prediction accuracy compared to Arrhenius equation and Black’s model.

中文翻译：

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热电应力下的 ​​LED 寿命预测

发光二极管 (LED) 的寿命在很大程度上取决于使用条件，例如工作温度和驱动电流。在每种使用条件下测试 LED 既昂贵又不切实际。之前的研究使用阿伦尼乌斯方程和布莱克模型来研究工作温度、驱动电流和流明维持寿命之间的关系。但是，发现它们在某些条件下不太准确。该研究旨在提高对不同热电条件下流明维持寿命的预测。本研究提出了 Eyring 模型。模型参数由回归方法确定，它提供了预测模型的拟合优度以及预测区间。此外，建立了一种基于Eyring模型和回归方法预测不同工况下流明衰减趋势的方法。因此，与 Arrhenius 方程和 Black 模型相比，Eyring 模型产生了更高的预测精度。