Application of Monte Carlo (MC) simulations in the statistical analysis of LED lumen maintenance is presented in this paper. Lumen maintenance data is acquired using experimental tests accomplished in the electro-optics laboratory of the Mazinoor lighting industry, which is an accredited laboratory by Iranian National Standards organization. The sampling rate and the duration of the experiments are consistent with LM-80-15 standard introduced by the Illumination Engineering Society of North America. In some cases, due to the existence of nonlinear dynamics in real trends of light flux, particularly in the first 1,000 hours, features are not completely captured using traditional reliability assessment techniques such as TM-21. In this study, a two-phase model is applied to cover features in lumen maintenance data. Furthermore, to estimate the parameters of the dedicated model in mild and severe operating conditions, a nonlinear Kalman filter-based method known as the iterated extended Kalman filter (IEKF) is used. A set of MC simulations are run to construct the probability density functions (PDFs) for the estimated parameters. Each simulation uses different values of the parameters chosen from the corresponding distribution. Finally, lifetime PDFs are constructed to extract reliability indices. All of the simulations are conducted in MATLAB and the results are compared with the conventional and well-known TM-21 approach.

中文翻译：

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使用基于蒙特卡罗的新颖算法进行 LED 可靠性评估


本文介绍了蒙特卡罗 (MC) 模拟在 LED 流明维持率统计分析中的应用。流明维持率数据是通过 Mazinoor 照明行业的电光实验室完成的实验测试获得的，该实验室是伊朗国家标准组织认可的实验室。采样率和实验持续时间符合北美照明工程学会推出的LM-80-15标准。在某些情况下，由于光通量的实际趋势中存在非线性动力学，特别是在前 1,000 小时内，使用 TM-21 等传统可靠性评估技术无法完全捕获特征。在本研究中，应用两相模型来涵盖流明维持数据中的特征。此外，为了估计温和和恶劣操作条件下专用模型的参数，使用了基于非线性卡尔曼滤波器的方法，称为迭代扩展卡尔曼滤波器（IEKF）。运行一组 MC 模拟来构建估计参数的概率密度函数 (PDF)。每个模拟都使用从相应分布中选择的不同参数值。最后，构建寿命 PDF 以提取可靠性指数。所有模拟均在 MATLAB 中进行，并将结果与​​传统且众所周知的 TM-21 方法进行比较。